Bitcoin, which saw strong gains in late April and early May, has dropped 5% in the last week, leading some to worry that its price may still fall further.
A well-known analyst thinks the price will likely rise significantly if it can stay above a key support level.
Big Jump or Major Collapse?
BTC analyst Ali Martinez, known for his technical analysis and predictions, recently shared his outlook. He’s been closely watching the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) indicator, and believes if Bitcoin stays above $72,960, it could rally to around $95,000.
I’m keeping a close eye on this key price level right now. If Bitcoin drops below it, a lot of analysts, like Martinez, are predicting a pretty significant drop – potentially all the way down to around $55,000. That would be a roughly 30% crash from where we are today, so it’s definitely something I’m watching closely.
In another post, the X user pointed out that Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio has fallen below its 180-day moving average. While many analysts would consider this a sign of a market slowdown, Martinez believes it indicates a strong buying opportunity – a period where investors are confidently building their Bitcoin holdings.
When the MVRV ratio drops below its 180-day average, it suggests the market is shedding excess value and becoming undervalued. Historically, these periods have been ideal times for long-term investors to start buying. As long as the ratio stays below this line, price movement will likely be limited, creating a good opportunity to gradually build positions.
Recent actions by major investors suggest a positive outlook for the market. As CryptoPotato reported, the number of individuals or entities holding 100 or more Bitcoin has risen to 20,229. This is an 11% increase from the 18,191 recorded in May 2025.
This indicates that major investors are optimistic about the asset and are likely preparing for a future price increase. This confidence could encourage smaller investors to also buy in, bringing new money into the market.
Is History Repeating?
However, some analysts predict a short-term price drop for Bitcoin. One such analyst, known as Chiefy on X, believes Bitcoin is entering a critical price range similar to the one seen during the 2022 market crash.
Looking at the current market, I’m seeing parallels to the past. After the last significant drop, many called it a ‘healthy correction,’ and it feels like we might be seeing a similar pattern unfold now. If history repeats itself, we could see Bitcoin fall to around $45,000 in the months ahead.
As a researcher, I’m increasingly concerned about the growing number of cryptocurrencies held on centralized exchanges. Our data at CryptoQuant currently shows nearly 2.7 million coins stored on these platforms – a figure very close to the peak we saw earlier this week. This trend suggests that some investors are choosing to let exchanges hold their crypto instead of managing it themselves, which could lead to increased selling activity in the short term.
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2026-05-20 15:01