XRP’s Rollercoaster: What On-Chain Data Reveals After Hitting $1.50

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<a href="https://jpygbp.com/xrp-usd/">XRP</a> Hit $1.50 and Pulled Back: What the On-Chain <a href="https://ebaster.ru/data">Data</a> Is Actually Telling Us

Key Takeaways

  • XRP rallied 13% during ceasefire negotiations, peaked at $1.50 on April 17.
  • Whales moved coins to Binance from April 11 – before the opening, not after.
  • Whale transactions near zero since – distribution likely complete.
  • Retail inflows consistent throughout, holding the floor.
  • Exchange reserves ticked up modestly then flattened.
  • RSI at 53.74 – momentum cooled, structure intact.

Since attacks by the US and Israel on Iran on February 28th, the Strait of Hormuz has been a source of constant tension. There have been threats, temporary openings, reversals of decisions, and demands made on all sides. Former President Trump set deadlines for Iran, while Iran allowed ships from China and India to pass through the region. The ceasefire on April 7th didn’t significantly change the situation, and talks in Islamabad failed. On April 13th, the US implemented a complete naval blockade of Iranian ports. For a month and a half, financial markets have reacted immediately to every piece of news, constantly adjusting to the ongoing instability rather than waiting for a resolution.

Things were getting interesting in the market, and I noticed XRP making some good gains – it jumped from around $1.32 on April 13th to $1.50 by the 17th. Then, there was news that Iran was reopening the Strait for commercial shipping, supposedly linked to a potential ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. That gave me a little hope. But, just as quickly, the IRGC closed the Strait again on April 18th, and XRP dipped back down to $1.43. It’s been a bit of a rollercoaster, honestly, mirroring all the geopolitical news.

The on-chain data tells you exactly who saw all of this coming.

Whales Didn’t React to the News

This story truly begins with a specific chart from CryptoQuant that tracks large cryptocurrency transactions, and the timing of those transactions is crucial.

Between late March and early April, large cryptocurrency transfers to Binance were unusually low. However, around April 11th, following the breakdown of talks in Islamabad and the start of a US naval blockade – coinciding with secret ceasefire negotiations – these large transactions suddenly surged, reaching almost 39,000 in a single day. This was the highest number recorded. This spike occurred six days before Iran announced the Strait would be open for passage.

These weren’t typical investors responding to news; they had anticipated the events. They noticed early signs from diplomatic channels, transferred their cryptocurrency to Binance before the price surged, and then sold when the news of the ceasefire caused a rush of buying from other investors. By April 17th, when the situation stabilized and others began to buy, they had already completed their sales.

By April 18, whale transactions had collapsed back to near zero.

The Reserves Tell the Same Story

Binance’s XRP reserves have been decreasing since mid-March, going from 2.8 billion to 2.74 billion by early April. This decrease in XRP held on the exchange suggests less selling pressure and is generally seen as a positive sign before a price increase.

Starting April 15th, exchange reserves began to increase again, reaching 2.76 billion, mirroring the actions of large cryptocurrency holders (whales). Both the reserve data and whale activity suggest the same thing: coins are being deposited back onto exchanges, the price is nearing its peak, and selling is happening openly.

Here’s the key takeaway: the increase in XRP reserves on exchanges has stopped. About 20 million XRP went back to Binance, and the amount of XRP held on exchanges has stabilized. A continued, strong selling trend would have meant reserves kept increasing rapidly, but that didn’t happen. This suggests that large XRP holders likely acquired the amount they wanted and have paused their selling activity, meaning they probably aren’t planning another large sell-off.

Retail Never Left But It Has a Ceiling

Even though large investors (whales) were selling around $1.50, smaller investors continued to buy steadily without causing any sudden price drops. Charts show consistent purchases of smaller amounts of XRP – mostly under $1,000 worth – throughout the entire period. There was no rush to sell, even when the price dipped from its highest point.

What’s notable is that the recent increase in buying from regular investors isn’t causing prices to drop. The market is easily handling this new demand, meaning buyers are finding sellers without much trouble. This suggests a strong and widespread base of support, which is more reliable than support that depends on just a few large investors who could pull out at any time.

The main challenge is this: while XRP has support around its current price, breaking above $1.50 and staying there needs significant, confident investment. Currently, those who recently sold for profit at that $1.50 level are waiting to see if it will hold before buying back in.

The Price Chart: Catching Its Breath

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the price drop from $1.50 to $1.43 seems gradual and controlled. There wasn’t a sudden crash, panicked selling, or a surge in trading volume – it was a steady decline as initial positive momentum faded and the market revisited a familiar pattern for the seventh time.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 53.74, below the signal line of 66.87, indicating slowing momentum, but no major issues yet. The key price level to watch is $1.43. This price acted as a support level before the price increase in April and is where the price settled after recent selling. If buyers can defend this level, the overall upward trend remains intact. However, if the price falls below $1.43, the next support level to watch is $1.37, which was the previous trading range before recent positive market sentiment began to drive prices up.

Where This Goes From Here

After over a month of repeating the same pattern, the market has become more accustomed to it. The intense fear seen in early March has subsided. Now, the market tends to rise when there are signs of de-escalation, then sees some profit-taking from those who invested earlier, dips to a support level, and pauses. The recent increase in XRP’s price, from $1.32 to $1.50, wasn’t surprising – it simply reflects how the market adjusts to changing probabilities in a situation that’s been all-or-nothing for weeks.

Looking at the activity of large investors (‘whales’) is key to understanding what will happen next. They bought in around $1.50, then paused, but haven’t tried to push the price lower. This doesn’t suggest a major downturn; it looks more like they’re taking profits after hitting a resistance level, which is typical. The selling pressure that stopped the price from going higher before is now reduced.

If the US and Iran show real signs of making progress in their negotiations, the price of XRP could rise to $1.50. This time, the conditions would be more favorable than before, with fewer large holders looking to sell and a solid base of smaller investors already holding the asset. Additionally, there’s potential for further price increases based on technical indicators.

If negotiations fail and overall market confidence weakens, the price dropping below $1.37 would signal a wider market issue, not just a problem specific to XRP.

The current setup suggests the price is more likely to try reaching $1.50 again than to fall lower. The next significant price movement will likely be driven by broader economic factors.

This article is for informational purposes only and shouldn’t be considered financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com doesn’t support or suggest any particular investment or cryptocurrency. Always do your own research and talk to a qualified financial advisor before investing.

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2026-04-18 19:57