XRP at the Grand Wall: A Gogol-Style Market Farce

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XRP price keeps ramming against the same stubborn ceiling near two dollars, and the town’s chatterers pretend it’s news every time. The real drama isn’t whether XRP can kiss $2; it’s whether the market can bear the weight of what crouches just beneath it.

On the twelve-hour ledger of fate, XRP lingers about 1.87 dollars and has slid roughly 4% in the past week. This melancholy appears despite a theatrical display of buying and repeated attempts to ascend the heights. To understand why those sallies fail, one must begin with a reclaim-the bureaucratic flourish that promises a file that never quite arrives.

XRP’s EMA Reclaim Is the First Step, but Only One Has Worked

On the twelve-hour frame, the most telling short-term omen for XRP is the twenty-period exponential moving average. The 20-EMA tracks the breath of the market’s mood; when price reclaims it and holds with volume, momentum tends to swing upward, like a clerk finding a sunbeam in a draughty office.

XRP has reclaimed the 20-EMA several times since December. Most of those attempts fizzled, but one did not.

On January 1 and January 2, XRP reclaimed the 20-EMA amid a chorus of green candles and robust buying volume. More importantly, the reclaim was followed by higher-volume green candles, not an abrupt surrender to selling. That confirmation mattered. Between January 2 and January 6, XRP rallied roughly 28%, the stoutest leap of the month.

That successful reclaim shows the EMA itself is not the miscreant. The mischief lies in the manner of reclaim.

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Compare that to later attempts. On December 9 and again around December 20, XRP briefly rose above the 20-EMA, but volume faded as quick as a rumor in a tavern. Follow-through buying never arrived as selling pressure took the stage, and the price drifted back below the average. The same dull page repeated on January 28. XRP reclaimed the 20-EMA on moderate volume, but the subsequent sessions failed to build on it. Selling pressure appeared.

The takeaway is simple. EMA reclaims need a strong follow-up of buyer volume. Without it, they are temporary signals, not genuine trend shifts. But even when volume improves, XRP runs into another obstacle.

The Sell Wall Above the EMA Is Why Rallies Stall

Once the XRP price reclaims the 20-EMA near $1.94 (current positioning), the price would immediately march into a heavy supply zone.

On-chain cost basis data reveals a major cluster between $1.96 and $1.98, containing roughly 1.86 billion XRP. This is not a mere psychological line. It is a pile of coins last bought in that range. When price returns there, many holders sell to break even or reduce exposure.

This is why reclaiming the EMA alone is not enough. The EMA reclaim pushes the price straight into this supply wall. If buying pressure is not strong enough to absorb it, rallies will fail even after the reclaim.

Early January shows the difference. During the January 1-6 rally, exchange outflows surged, indicating coins were leaving exchanges rather than being sent there to sell.

Outflows climbed from roughly 8.9 million XRP to about 38.5 million XRP. That sustained demand helped the price move through the supply cluster. Even though the outflow was much smaller than the wall’s size, the more than 330% surge in outflow suggests the holders may not have sold at the wall.

Recent attempts lack that support and conviction. On January 28, exchange outflows briefly rose to about 18.1 million XRP, helping the XRP price push higher intraday. But by January 29, outflows fell back near 5.4 million XRP.

This explains why XRP keeps stalling just below $2. The market is not rejecting the number. It is struggling to show the conviction needed to absorb the supply behind it.

Whales Are Buying, but Demand Still Falls Short

Whale behavior adds nuance, but it does not change the conclusion.

Wallets holding 10 million to 100 million XRP increased their balances from roughly 11.03 billion to 11.19 billion XRP since January 21, almost 160 million. That shows accumulation. Larger wallets holding over 1 billion XRP have shown mixed behavior, with holdings going up by a marginal 30 million.

This tells us whales are positioning, not forcing price.

Compared with the 1.86 billion XRP sell wall, current whale accumulation and spot demand are not large enough to overwhelm supply. Buying exists, but uneven and short-lived. Without sustained exchange outflows, whale additions, and volume expansion, the wall remains intact.

The Levels That Decide Whether XRP Price Breaks or Fails Again

The roadmap is now clear.

  • $1.94-$1.95: First step. A clean reclaim puts XRP back above the 20-EMA.
  • $1.99: The real trigger. A strong 12-hour close above this level would break the supply cluster.
  • Above $1.99, follow-through becomes more likely, as the sell wall thins out, targeting $2.04 and even $2.19.
  • On the downside, a 12-hour close below $1.80 would invalidate the setup and signal renewed weakness.

XRP does not need to prove it can touch $2. It has done that already. It needs sustained buying strong enough to absorb 1.86 billion XRP sitting just below that level. Until that happens, every rebound will keep running into the same wall.

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2026-01-29 17:36