Key Takeaways
Stellar (XLM) is back at the $0.42-$0.44 support zone, trying to figure out whether it should pull off another dramatic rally. However, don’t get too excited unless Bitcoin stops its slumber and stays above $116.8k—otherwise, things could get a bit sticky.
Stellar (XLM), like your overly ambitious friend who always promises a wild night out, was on a tear—until it needed a quick break. According to AMBCrypto, bulls are apparently a little tired after pushing XLM up by a ridiculous 110% in a single week. Yeah, some of us are still trying to process that.
But wait! Just as XLM took a quick breather, Bitcoin (BTC) decided to throw a hissy fit, dropping 4.95% from $123.2k to $117.1k. This, of course, coincided perfectly with XLM’s own slight dip. Oh, the timing!
According to Coinalyze (where the magic happens), the bullish spirit is still strong in the short-term. Funding Rates are as positive as a puppy, and yet, a 10.6% drop in price came with a $20 million reduction in Open Interest. That’s a lot of money walking out the door, but hey, profit’s profit, right?
Apparently, some traders decided to cash out at the $0.51 resistance zone, leaving others to wonder if they’d missed the boat. Oh well. Sellers are still not ruling the show, according to the spot CVD, suggesting the dip could just be a temporary blip on the radar.
Can XLM Bulls Resume Their Upward March?
Using the rally from June 22, we whipped up some Fibonacci retracement levels (white, for those who are keeping track). The market structure turned bullish on July 6, and suddenly, there was a flood of trading volume as XLM shot up to $0.516. Everyone loves a good surge, right?
As XLM’s price headed to the stars, the daily chart presented a few gaps (kind of like your schedule when you’re avoiding work). The first gap? The $0.42-$0.44 zone, which, wouldn’t you know it, is exactly where XLM is hanging out right now, trying to figure out if it’s time to get back on the bull train.
The A/D indicator (just trust me, it’s important) is still going up, showing strong buying activity. Meanwhile, the CMF, which sounds suspiciously like a new dance move, has a reading of +0.23, which is pretty impressive, and way above the +0.05 mark that signals a decent chunk of capital flowing into the market.
Meanwhile, the MFI has been cooling off from a rather hot 97.7 on July 14. It’s like the stock market equivalent of taking a chill pill.
However, let’s not get too carried away. The 4-hour chart is giving off some warning signs. There’s a bearish divergence between the MFI and price (marked in orange), which is the chart equivalent of your friend telling you, “This might not end well.”
The pullback has already brought XLM down to $0.43. The CMF, like a teenager who lost interest in the latest trend, has fallen to neutral. This bearish divergence has played out, meaning XLM is revisiting the demand zone. Will it bounce back? Stay tuned!
But hey, if Bitcoin decides to get all moody and drop below $116k, expect XLM to follow suit. Until then, keep your bullish hat on, because XLM might still have some tricks up its sleeve.
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2025-07-16 06:18