Ah, the Federal Reserve, that enigmatic institution, finds itself ensnared in a web of political intrigue, as the ever-assertive President Trump looms like a specter, demanding the lowering of the federal funds rate. The Fed, however, hesitates, gripped by the specter of inflation that dances like a mischievous sprite, conjured by the very tariffs that Trump so ardently champions. 🧐
Just last week, in a scene reminiscent of a farcical play, Trump graced the Fed with his presence, questioning Chairman Jerome Powell about the extravagant renovations that seem to have spiraled out of control. “Why, dear Jerome, are we spending so much?” he might as well have exclaimed, while simultaneously reiterating his fervent calls for the FOMC to cut rates. A cut, he believes, would not only benefit Bitcoin and its cryptocurrency brethren but also breathe life into the languishing equities, igniting the flames of economic activity across the land. 💸
Yet, the market, that fickle mistress, seems to have already penned its script, predicting with near certainty that the Fed will hold rates steady at the FOMC meeting on the 30th of July. A mere 3.1% chance of a rate cut, according to the wise sages of CME FedWatch, and Polymarket echoes this sentiment with similar low odds. It’s as if the market is saying, “Oh, dear Fed, do stay your hand!”
But lo! Enter Suliman Mulhem, the financial analyst with a glimmer of hope in his eye, who dares to suggest that a surprise 25 basis point cut might still be lurking in the shadows, waiting to pounce. “Imagine, if you will,” he muses, “a surprise cut on the 30th, should the Fed deem the tariff-induced price hikes as mere fleeting phantoms.”
He continues, “The labor market, while not particularly tight, does not seem to be the harbinger of inflationary doom. Tariffs, it appears, are unlikely to unleash a wage-price spiral, but rather, they may merely cause a one-time price increase, like a sudden gust of wind that rattles the leaves but does not uproot the tree.” 🌳
Mulhem, with a sage nod, asserts that the absence of this dreaded spiral, combined with the current low pricing power of firms, suggests that the Fed ought to act with prudence. “Let us exclude tariff-related inflation from our calculations, dear FOMC, and consider a rate cut this very July!”
Yet, he cautions, beneath the surface of seemingly robust job data, cracks are beginning to form. “While the unemployment rate hovers near four percent, and the labor market appears to be thriving, the private sector’s job creation has slowed to a crawl, like a tortoise in a race against time. Should this trend continue, we may find ourselves facing a dramatic 50 basis point cut at the September FOMC meeting, should the Fed choose to remain steadfast on Wednesday.”
Meanwhile, Bitcoin, that capricious creature, has been frolicking in the $116,000-$120,000 range, biding its time as it awaits a catalyst for a breakout. A surprise cut on the 30th could very well provide the momentum needed for Bitcoin to soar above $120,000, entering a new realm of price discovery, much to the delight of its fervent followers. 🚀
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2025-07-30 15:45