Will Bitcoin’s Bulls Triumph or Will the Bears Crash the Party? Find Out! 🐂🐻

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Most Remarkable Observations:

  • In the grand theatre of September’s Bitcoin options expiry, the bulls have taken the leading role-provided, of course, that Bitcoin maintains the rather ambitious support of $110,000. Quite the feat, indeed.

  • Yet, amongst this hopeful optimism, the ever-persistent spectre of macroeconomic uncertainty skulks in the shadows, keeping the door ajar for those ever-dreaded bears.

Allow me to present the matter at hand: a sum of $22.6 billion in Bitcoin options is set to expire come Friday, promising a moment of reckoning following a most disagreeable rejection at the tantalizing height of $117,000. At present, the bulls are composing their victory speeches-on the condition that the $112,000 mark does not stumble.

Bitcoin market chart

One must tip one’s hat to Deribit, which commands the market with a princely $17.4 billion in open interest for the impending options expiry. OKX and CME, those lesser players, trail behind with a mere $1.9 billion apiece. As it is customary with the ever-hopeful cryptocurrency enthusiasts, call options (buy) outnumber puts (sell), demonstrating an all-too-familiar optimism that may be naiveté dressed smartly.

A Predilection for Neutral-to-Bullish Delights

The September expiry scarcely deviates from tradition, with put positions lingering 20% below the $12.6 billion parade of call contracts. The final act depends entirely on the Bitcoin price at the stroke of 8:00 am UTC this Friday-a moment where call holders’ initial advantage hangs precariously upon the $112,000 line.

Options positioning chart

Upon survey of Deribit’s positions, the neutral-to-bearish camps have wagered between $95,000 and $110,000-a range that grows less plausible by the hour. Meanwhile, the optimistic lot places a staggering $6.6 billion of calls at $120,000 and above, which one might politely term “ambitious,” thus leaving about $3.3 billion in the realm of sober reality.

Conversely, an impressive 81% of put options reside at or below $110,000, a mere $1.4 billion keeping the bearish fires alive. This arrangement decidedly tips the scales towards bullishness, though cunning strategists might be employing more intricate maneuvers-such as selling puts to catch an upside breeze. To divine true professional sentiment, all eyes now turn to the options skew with a detective’s hopeful gaze.

Delta skew chart

Lo and behold, the Bitcoin options delta skew registers a modest 13% fear factor, with puts trading at a premium over their call counterparts. Under innocent, neutral skies, this measure would lounge comfortably between -6% and 6%. The fact that it does not makes clear that even the mightiest whales and market makers are somewhat disquieted by the prospect of a tumble from the lofty $113,500 perch.

$112,000-The Decisive Line of Fate for Bitcoin’s Momentum

Pray, consider three plausible scenarios at Deribit, based on the present course:

  • Should Bitcoin grace the range of $107,000 to $110,000: Calls totalling $1 billion face off against puts worth $2 billion. Alas, puts triumph by a billion, much to the bulls’ chagrin.

  • If Bitcoin meanders between $110,100 and $112,000: With $1.4 billion in calls duking it out against an equal weight of puts, the field is perfectly balanced-much like one’s chances of predicting the weather.

  • And if Bitcoin dares to rise between $112,100 and $115,000: Calls lead with $1.66 billion against puts at $1 billion, granting the bulls a somewhat comfy $660 million advantage. Huzzah!

Yet, do not be so hasty as to dismiss the bears entirely-they are, after all, patient creatures, waiting for the inevitable macroeconomic curveballs arriving this Thursday: GDP figures, weekly jobless statements, and the thrilling spectacle of Treasury auctions.

The economic stage grows increasingly fragile, begging the US Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, which usually sends risk-on spirits like cryptocurrencies into a joyous ballet. However, the persistent murmurings of labor market frailty instil a sceptical mood, which sadly weighs heavily on Bitcoin’s price like a damp bonnet on a sunny day.

For now, the September monthly Bitcoin options expiry tipping the scales toward the bulls is the most agreeable verdict, though one must never rule out a devastating fall beneath $112,000-quite the dramatic twist, isn’t it?

This humble discourse serves but as general information and is in no way intended to pass for legal or investment counsel. The thoughts presented herein belong solely to their author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of CryptoMoon-who, one suspects, are rather fond of celestial bodies.

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2025-09-25 01:08