Why Top Traders Are Still Betting on XRP Despite a 42% Drop!

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<a href="https://jpygbp.com/xrp-usd/">XRP</a> Down 42% in 90 Days: Top Traders Are Still Long

Key Takeaways

  • XRP at $1.3232, RSI at 33.92.
  • Down 1.46% today, 4.81% over 30 days, 42% over 90 days.
  • Binance OI declined by 721.49 million XRP.
  • Bybit shed a further 132.10 million XRP in OI.
  • Top trader long/short ratio at 2.75, remaining positioned traders are heavily net long.

What the Chart Shows

XRP is currently trading at $1.3232 on Binance. It’s holding just above a support level of $1.3220 after experiencing its biggest single-day drop since April 8th, when prices initially rose following the ceasefire news. The price fell from $1.33 to a low of $1.3218, accompanied by a significant increase in selling pressure – the strongest we’ve seen since that initial surge.

As a crypto investor watching XRP, I’m seeing a concerning trend. The 50-day Simple Moving Average, currently around $1.3463, is heading downwards and is just a couple of cents above where XRP is trading now. We had a quick jump in price back in early April, but XRP hasn’t been able to convincingly break above that moving average since. Since peaking after the recent market activity, it’s been a steady series of lower highs – we’ve seen peaks at $1.395, then $1.385, $1.375, $1.36, and most recently $1.33. Each time XRP tries to bounce back, the recovery is weaker than the last, which isn’t a good sign.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 33.92, its lowest point on the chart. The signal line is slightly higher at 36.31, and both indicators are nearing oversold levels around 30. When the RSI reaches 30, the price is more likely to bounce back, no matter the overall economic conditions. Currently, the price is being supported around $1.31-$1.32 – this level hasn’t been breached yet. If the price closes today below $1.32, it will signal a test of that support.

What the OI Collapse Actually Shows

Over the past 30 days, open interest in XRP on Binance dropped significantly by 721.49 million, which is the largest decrease seen on any exchange in CryptoQuant’s data. Bybit also saw a decrease of 132.10 million XRP, while Bitfinex’s open interest fell by 10.96 million. Overall, these reductions across the three biggest platforms suggest a large number of leveraged XRP positions have been closed.

Most analysts believe the current trend is negative: people are selling their investments, reducing debt, and becoming more cautious. The recent price movements seem to confirm this view.

However, the ratio of Binance traders who are betting on prices going up versus those betting on them going down (currently 2.75) makes the situation more complex. This ratio dropped to around 2.30 when talks between the US and Iran in Pakistan failed to produce an agreement, reflecting increased uncertainty. But it then rebounded to its current level as the outcome of the talks became clear. This suggests that experienced traders took the negative news in stride and continued to believe prices would rise.

The recent decrease in Open Interest wasn’t caused by large traders becoming pessimistic. Instead, it happened because smaller, less confident investors closed their positions or sold off their holdings as the expectation of a ceasefire faded. Now, only a smaller group of strongly committed and financially stable investors remain holding long positions. The current market situation leaves us wondering if their confidence is justified, or if they are the final buyers before prices fall further.

What the Data Is Actually Saying

The chart already clearly indicates a potential downturn: prices have been falling since April 8th, the 50-day moving average is decreasing, and the value has dropped 42% over the last three months. There’s also no obvious positive economic news to suggest a turnaround, even after the events in Islamabad. So, there’s no need to reiterate this negative outlook.

Looking at derivatives data gives us a clearer signal. Despite a recent drop in open interest, top traders still hold a significantly large number of long positions – 2.75 times more than short positions. When combined with the Relative Strength Index nearing 30, this pattern historically suggests the price is likely to bounce back rather than continue falling.

When the market is oversold and many traders are already betting on prices going up, we often see a quick rebound rather than a continued drop. The fact that the price has repeatedly held steady between $1.31 and $1.32, despite this optimistic positioning, suggests a likely recovery – something a simple price chart wouldn’t tell you on its own.

Price will either stabilize at this level, confirming the confidence of leading traders, or it will fall further, with little support available until much lower prices are reached.

This article is just for informational and educational purposes, and shouldn’t be taken as financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com doesn’t support or suggest any particular investment or cryptocurrency. Before you make any investment decisions, be sure to do your own research and talk to a qualified financial advisor.

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2026-04-12 19:29