What to know:
- Strategy accounts for only 7% of gross inflows, meaning its buying is small relative to total market demand and easily offset by larger forces.
- Long-term holder positioning, revived supply, and realized cap changes are dominating flows.
- U.S. spot ETFs have added roughly $1 billion of inflows over the past 30 days, while miner issuance, at 450 BTC per day, contributes around $880 million of monthly supply pressure.
MicroStrategy (MSTR), a company that holds the most bitcoin of any publicly traded firm, revealed on Monday it bought 4,871 bitcoins for $330 million. This is one of their biggest bitcoin purchases of the year 2026.
As an analyst, I keep coming back to the same puzzle: why don’t large bitcoin purchases seem to impact the price? It’s actually quite common to see the price *drop* when these big buys are announced, which is counterintuitive.
Understanding where money is flowing in the market is key. Data from checkonchain shows that demand for MSTR currently makes up around 7% of all money coming into the market (gross inflows), and about 9% when considering both purchases and sales (net flows). Gross inflows only measure buying, while net flows give a more complete view of overall buying and selling pressure. Although Strategy continues to buy MSTR, its buying activity is small compared to the overall market trends.
MSTR used to be much more popular. Demand reached its peak at over $15 billion in November 2024, when the stock price and Bitcoin were both at their highest points. Since then, demand has settled down to between $1 billion and $4 billion, and currently sits around $2.8 billion over the last month.
The main factor influencing current market activity is long-term Bitcoin holders – those who’ve held their coins for over 155 days. They’re responsible for about $28.5 billion worth of Bitcoin being moved. Notably, around $9 billion of this activity comes from coins that haven’t been moved in over a year, but have been moved on the blockchain in the last 30 days.
Over the last month, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs have seen about $1 billion in new investments. Meanwhile, Bitcoin miners are releasing around 450 BTC each day, which adds roughly $880 million worth of Bitcoin to the market each month, creating some selling pressure.
Perhaps more significantly, money is still flowing out of the market. Bitcoin has seen a $29 billion decrease in its realized capitalization over the past month, and trading activity in BlackRock’s IBIT exchange-traded fund has fallen by over $4 billion. These combined outflows are much larger than the buying pressure from MicroStrategy (MSTR).
While some are trying to boost prices by buying, these efforts are being overshadowed by a larger trend: increased selling and investors withdrawing their money.
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2026-04-07 14:38