Whales Bet Big on Solana: Are They Visionaries or Just Dreamers?

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Ah, dear reader, behold the spectacle of Solana! Its price has plummeted with the grace of a poorly thrown javelin, losing almost 40% in a mere month, and more than 54% since its lofty heights in January! Indeed, the trend appears as shaky as a tightrope walker at a banquet, yet lo! Some audacious whales, like brave knights of yore, are riding the storm with their long positions, even amidst the bear’s fierce growl!

What a curious divide this creates! The trend may point downward, but behold! Signs of a reversal – or mere mirage? What can these grand whales possibly perceive that eludes the common trader?

Whale Long Bets: A Comedy of Errors as Solana Wobbles

Though Solana’s broader trend wears a gloomy face, early whispers of reversal tantalize our ears. The first hint springs from the mystical dance of price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI), that fickle oracle of momentum!

Since November 21, our beleaguered Solana has been making lower lows-much like a tragic hero in a farcical play-yet the RSI, that cunning rascal, has begun to form a higher low. This peculiar phenomenon is known as bullish divergence, suggesting that sellers might be losing their vigor, much like an over-enthusiastic actor forgetting his lines. But beware, dear reader! This signal awaits confirmation, for two conditions must be met.

Firstly, the next daily candle must rise above the noble threshold of $77, the current low of our latest performance. Should it ascend, it would confirm that the sellers have indeed flubbed their lines!

Secondly, the RSI must remain above the sacred number of 30, lest it betray us and sink into the depths of despair. Should it falter beneath this line, the bullish divergence shall vanish like a puff of smoke, leaving us once again in the clutches of weakness. As long as $77 stands firm and RSI maintains its regal posture above 30 (the second condition being paramount), our early reversal tale remains alive!

This explains why some whales, in their infinite wisdom, have decided to take the plunge.

One particularly bold whale, akin to a swashbuckler of finance, recently deposited $2 million in USDC and opened a 20× leveraged long position on Solana, determined to dance even as the market waltzes downward!

Whale “0x4A2,” a character worthy of our admiration, deposited $2M $USDC into #HyperLiquid and increased its $SOL (20x) long position, all while keeping an open order to further amplify its endeavor.

The whale also holds a $ETH (20x) long position valued at a staggering $11.14M.

– Onchain Lens (@OnchainLens) February 23, 2026

Yet, oh dear audience, the broader derivatives market offers a contrary tune, disagreeing quite vigorously with this optimistic view. Open interest has risen from $1.93 billion to $1.98 billion, a 2.6% increase! Meanwhile, funding rates have dived sharply from -0.005% to -0.032%, a plunge of 540% deeper into the abyss!

Clearly, the market wagers heavily on further misfortunes. So, why do our seasoned holders accumulate like squirrels gathering acorns before winter, while most traders continue to don their bearish cloaks? Surely, there lies something beyond mere unconfirmed reversals!

Long-Term Holders: The Silent Accumulators Amidst the Chaos

The behavior of long-term holders unveils vital clues in this grand drama! The Hodler Net Position Change, which tracks whether our steadfast long-term investors are buying or selling, indicates a remarkable surge in accumulation-a veritable feast for the astute! Long-term holders have increased their net buying from 786,539 SOL to 972,417 SOL in a single day-a staggering 23.6% rise!

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This illustrious increase suggests that seasoned investors are quietly accumulating during this tempest. Another telling sign emerges from the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator, measuring whether large capital is flowing gracefully into or out of our beloved asset.

Even while Solana’s price flounders, CMF begins to rise, indicating money is stealthily drifting into Solana’s embrace. However, for large sums of capital to positively influence the SOL price, it must first conquer the ascending trendline and then the elusive zero line!

This accumulation becomes ever more significant when paired with the weekly VWAP, that dependable Volume Weighted Average Price, which serves as a proxy for institutional positioning. Solana recently made a brief debut above this level, experiencing a 10% uptick. We recall a similar performance in early January, where the price rallied nearly 20%. For now, the VWAP line hovers over $79, tantalizingly close to our current trading price.

Previously, the VWAP reclaim led the CMF above the zero line, suggesting that institutional-style accumulation may be awakening once more. Such optimism, however, does not come without its perils!

Short-Term Holders: The Wild Cards in This Financial Farce

Alas, short-term holders now represent the greatest peril to our recovery! This can be seen in the HODL Waves, that clever metric measuring how long investors clutch their coins by grouping supply into time bands.

The 1-week to 1-month holder group has increased its supply share from 5.10% to 7.18%, a dramatic 40% rise! These swift-footed short-term holders are likely to sell at the first sign of volatility, creating resistance during our noble attempts at recovery.

Solana now finds itself perched upon a critical precipice. If it manages to hold aloft above $77 and our dear RSI stays above 30 (as mentioned earlier), our bullish divergence remains valid, allowing for a potential recovery towards the glimmering $91-a delightful 15% upside!

However, should the fateful $77 break and RSI tumble below 30, the bullish setup shall crumble like a poorly constructed stage set! In such a calamity, Solana may descend to $68 and perhaps even $54, representing a dreadfully steep drop of over 30% from its current state.

Thus, we find ourselves at a most critical juncture. While the broader market continues to bet against Solana’s fortunes, evidenced by rising short positions and deeply negative funding rates, our whales and long-term holders remain steadfast, positioning themselves early for a different denouement. The next few candles and the fate of RSI at 30 shall determine who emerges triumphant in this grand tale!

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2026-02-23 14:35