Whale’s $14.8M Bet: Will TRUMP Sink to $4.80? 🐋📉

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A whale is in the news today after it deposited 3 million TRUMP tokens, worth $14.88 million, into Binance after holding for roughly 50 days. 🐋💸 The address initially withdrew the same tokens for $22.68 million. By making this deposit, it locked in a realized loss of approximately $7.8 million. How tragic, isn’t it? 😢

This transfer signals capitulation, rather than profit-taking. Especially since the exit occurred far below the original entry price. What a delightful spectacle! 🎭

As far as the altcoin is concerned, however, the price did not collapse sharply following the same. In fact, it held on above $4.80 – A sign that the market absorbsed a portion of the sell-side flow. How very polite of it! 🙏

What this suggested is that while this event increased short-term supply risk, it did not independently force a breakdown. A minor miracle, if you ask me! 🤯

Breakout fades as resistance caps upside

TRUMP’s price broke above the descending channel, but failed to sustain acceptance above the former upper boundary near $5.20-$5.25. The price retested this zone and faced immediate rejection, confirming it as active resistance rather than reclaimed support. How predictable! 🎭

Consequently, the price rolled back towards $5 – A level which now acts as a short-term pivot. What a charming little pivot! 🪞

Below this level, downside risk opens towards $4.80, where prior reaction lows and liquidity pockets sit. A veritable treasure trove! 🧳

At the time of writing, the RSI had a reading of 46 – Well below the neutral 50-mark. This reading confirmed weak bullish momentum, despite the breakout attempt. However, the RSI was still well above the oversold threshold near 30. This hinted at controlled selling, rather than panic-driven exits. A most civilized affair! 🥂

To put it simply, the price action hinted at a failed continuation move, not trend reversal. Bulls must reclaim $5.20 with momentum to invalidate downside pressure. Or, as I prefer to say, “Let us hope for the best, but expect the worst.” 🤞

Buyers still absorb despite weak structure

Spot taker CVD over the 90-day window seemed to be buyer-dominant – A sign that market buy orders may be outweighing sell orders, despite recent rejections. This divergence matters because buyers continue to step in even as structure weakens. How valiant! 🦸‍♂️

However, the price has failed to expand higher. This might allude to absorption, rather than aggressive demand. Therefore, buyers may be reactive, not conviction-driven. Such a behavior often emerges during consolidation phases, rather than trend reversals. How very… sedentary. 🪑

As long as the CVD stays positive without price expansion, demand will offset selling while failing to flip momentum. A most delicate balance! 🧩

Are traders really confident long?

Binance’s top trader positioning revealed 56.87% long accounts versus 43.13% short accounts, producing a long/short ratio near 1.32 on the four-hour timeframe. What a modest majority! 🎉

This skew reflected a long bias, but not aggressive conviction. Moreover, the ratio usually fluctuates quickly, underlining active position management rather than firm directional commitment. How very cautious! 🧠

Therefore, traders might be leaning long cautiously, while keeping risk tight. Shorts have also failed to dominate so far, keeping the price compressed. A most uneventful dance! 💃🕺

Such a balance increases sensitivity to liquidity-driven moves. Consequently, the positioning might be supporting volatility risk, rather than trend clarity. How thrilling! 🎢

Liquidity clusters warn of sharp moves

The 24-hour liquidation heatmap highlighted dense liquidation clusters above the price between $5.10 and $5.20, while thinner liquidity lay below near $4.80. What a curious arrangement! 🧩

This distribution increases the probability of sharp moves towards overhead liquidity. Moreover, clustered stops often attract short-term price probes during low-conviction phases. How very dramatic! 🎭

Therefore, TRUMP’s price may gravitate upwards to test overhead liquidity before choosing direction. However, failure to clear that zone would raise downside risk towards lower liquidity pockets. A most theatrical outcome! 🎭

In conclusion, TRUMP’s price remains vulnerable after failing to reclaim $5.20, with the structure favoring further downside pressure. A most unfortunate turn of events! 😔

Although buyers continue to absorb sell orders, demand hasn’t been generating any upside expansion so far. A most disappointing lack of enthusiasm! 😕

Final Thoughts

  • Failure to reclaim overhead resistance keeps TRUMP structurally weak, with price action favoring continuation rather than recovery in the near term. A most uninviting prospect! 🚧
  • Although buyers continue to absorb sell-side flow, their activity lacks momentum. How very… lackluster. 🧘‍♀️

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2025-12-26 23:20