Trump’s Truth Social Posts Are Secretly Moving Crypto-Here’s How to Profit Fast

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Iran’s “Reverse Indicator” Theory: Is Trump’s Truth Social the Best Signal for Crypto Traders?

A surprising voice emerged amidst global discussions about the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran: the Speaker of Iran’s Parliament.

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf posted on X on March 30, in what has since garnered 14.8 million views.

Be careful with early morning news or rumors! Often, they’re designed to let someone make a quick profit. Think of it this way: if the price goes up based on these reports, consider selling (shorting). If the price goes down, consider buying (going long). If you see something happening early on, you know what to do.

The impact of the post was quickly felt. S&P 500 futures dropped almost 1% when trading began at 6:00 PM Eastern Time, but those losses disappeared by 11:00 PM. Shortly after, Donald Trump announced on his social media platform that discussions with Iran’s government – which he called a “new, and more reasonable” group – were going well and making significant headway.

The S&P 500 rebounded strongly, rising over 100 points from its lowest point during the night and increasing the total value of companies in the index by around $900 billion.

The Strait of Hormuz Is Crypto’s Most Important Variable

Bitcoin reacted similarly, rising to as high as $67,800 after Trump announced “great progress.” This surge led to $340 million in liquidations across cryptocurrency exchanges.

Similarly, when Iran dismissed the US peace plan and insisted the Strait of Hormuz would stay closed, Bitcoin’s price dropped. QCP Capital noted that Bitcoin has been fluctuating between $65,000 and $70,000 during this period, generally increasing with positive news about peace and decreasing when tensions rise. They also observed a tendency for the price to dip towards the end of the week as traders reduce their positions, before recovering at the beginning of the next week.

The Strait of Hormuz is a key route for oil tankers, handling about 20% of the world’s supply. When it was largely closed at the end of February, the price of Brent crude oil jumped above $114 a barrel, increasing fears about rising inflation. This made it less likely the Federal Reserve would lower interest rates and negatively impacted investments like cryptocurrencies. However, recent positive developments in diplomatic talks have caused Brent crude to fall back to $106.93.

Bitcoin is currently trading at $66,352, down 1.61% over the past 24 hours.

Five Weeks, Same Pattern

This isn’t an isolated incident. Just before Ghalibaf’s statement, Trump announced on his social media platform that the US and Iran were having “VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS.” Initially, the stock market went up and oil prices dropped, but by the end of the week, the stock market declined and oil prices rose again.

As an analyst, I’ve been following the market closely, and recently, on March 28th, Ghalibaf pointed out something I’ve also observed: all the talk of peace has actually had a dampening effect. He believes that despite this, genuine price movements will eventually emerge, reflecting the true state of things.

All the false information they’ve spread to try and lower energy prices has had the opposite effect – the market is now ignoring it. They can keep trying, but people aren’t falling for it. The actual prices will become clear eventually. While they may have some influence, their approach is far from intelligent. They wasted their opportunity by using this tactic too soon.

— محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf (@mb_ghalibaf) March 27, 2026

What’s the Next Test?

Trump has now extended his Strait of Hormuz deadline to April 6.

According to a report in the Wall Street Journal today, former President Trump has indicated he’d be open to ending military operations in Iran, even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. This suggests a change in how the market interprets the significance of April 6th. Following the report, S&P 500 futures rose by 0.8%, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil gave up its earlier gains. Bitcoin remained steady at $67,545.

If fighting stops in the Middle East but the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, it’s a complicated situation for cryptocurrency. While it reduces immediate negative news that’s been limiting Bitcoin’s price, a blocked waterway would likely keep oil prices high and inflation persistent, making it harder for central banks to lower interest rates as many investors expect.

According to analysts at Greeks.live, the market is currently pausing to assess the situation. They emphasize that any further statements from Donald Trump regarding Iran are the biggest factor influencing price swings in the cryptocurrency market.

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2026-03-31 13:53