Traders Bet Against XMR for Weeks, Yet Price Surges 26%

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Traders Shorted <a href="https://jpygbp.com/xmr-usd/">XMR</a> for Three Weeks: Price Rose 26% Anyway

Key Takeaways

  • XMR price at $377: Above 200MA and below 50MA ($386.44).
  • Spot taker CVD: buy dominant every session from April 4 to April 27.
  • Futures taker CVD: sell dominant April 10 through April 24, flipped green April 27.
  • Retail futures activity: neutral grey for all of April, zero crowd participation.
  • January-February 2026 blowoff: Too Many Retail at $650-$750, collapse to $290.
  • RSI(14) at 42.28, pulling back toward oversold after $405 peak.
  • First session of spot and futures CVD alignment: April 27.

The Rally Retail Missed

What’s most interesting about Monero’s price increase in April isn’t the increase itself, but *who* didn’t participate. The price rose from $320 to $405 thanks to immediate buyers, and trading data showed no activity from typical retail investors during any of those sessions. The same group of people who caused the big price jump in January to $750 were nowhere to be seen this time.

Looking at trading patterns from May 2025 to April 2026, we can see what happened. A surge in buying between January and February 2026 pushed prices up to $450-$750, but then a sharp drop in March to $290 forced all those recent buyers to sell. The single green point on the chart at around $295 represents the final sell-off, indicating that all retail investors had exited. Since then, the chart shows a neutral recovery, meaning the asset is gaining value without the participation of those who lost money during the decline.

Price increases fueled by new money from retail investors are often unstable because those same investors are quick to sell when the price drops. The group that recently pushed the price of XMR from $320 to $405 in April also held on through the larger price drop from $750 and even bought more at the lowest point. This demonstrates they are a different type of investor with a long-term outlook.

Spot Bought For Four Weeks While Futures Shorted

The CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) chart for spot trading showed consistent buying pressure from April 4th to April 27th – a full 24 days where buying outweighed selling. Notably, the size of the bars on the chart increased during the last week of this period, coinciding with a price increase from $355 to $405. This indicates that buyers weren’t just participating in the market, but were actively increasing their buying as the price went up.

As a crypto investor, I’ve been looking at the CryptoQuant futures taker CVD data, and it’s painting a different picture than some of the short-squeeze theories. From April 10th to the 24th, futures traders were mostly selling in almost every session. This makes me think accumulation is happening, rather than a short squeeze. A true short squeeze, especially one that jumps 26% in just three weeks, wouldn’t cause 24 straight days of buying on the spot market – it’d be a quick spike and then a drop. What we’re seeing is consistent, building pressure from spot buyers, suggesting they’re actually *buying* and holding Monero. It looks like they’re hedging their positions by simultaneously shorting futures, which would create this exact pattern: consistent buying on the spot market and consistent selling on the futures market – a classic basis trade, not just a bet on price direction.

As a crypto investor, I’ve been watching the futures market closely, and something interesting happened on April 27th. For the first time in nearly three weeks, more people were buying futures contracts than selling them. Now, typically, if these futures were just being used to protect existing Bitcoin holdings (hedging), we wouldn’t see short positions lasting this long. The fact that the trend flipped suggests either people closed out their short bets as the price got closer to $405, or we saw a fresh wave of new buyers stepping in. What’s also noteworthy is that this shift happened during a price dip *after* the recent peak, not when prices were hitting new highs. It’s a potentially interesting signal, but definitely something I’m watching carefully to see if it holds.

What The Moving Average Stack Says About This Pullback

Okay, so I’m watching Monero (XMR) right now, and it’s trading around $377.66. From a technical analysis perspective, it’s holding up okay, still within a range where a slight dip could be healthy. The 200-day moving average is around $374.56, so as long as it stays above that, things look good. The 100-day MA is at $379.76, and the 50-day is even higher at $386.44. Basically, if it drops below $374.56, I’d be worried. But if it can break above $379.76, I think it’s likely to start moving up again.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is nearing oversold levels but hasn’t reached them yet. Previously, when the RSI hit oversold, the price bottomed out around $320 in early April and $290 in March. Currently, momentum is declining while the price is 18% above the previous low. If the RSI nears oversold at a higher price than the previous bottom, it suggests increasing momentum, which often signals the start of a new price move instead of a continued decline.

The $374.56 level is a key point to watch. If the price falls below it, it will signal a potential change in trend, as it would be the first time the price has dropped below this level since it broke out on April 21st. Staying above it suggests this dip is just a temporary pause before continuing upward.

Exhausted Spot Buyers

Despite using the same data, a negative outlook suggests the recent buying strength is fading. Twenty-four straight days of strong buying from traders may signal an end to this trend, not a continuation of it. With buyers already up 26%, there’s little new retail investment to support further price increases. The change in the April 27 futures contract could represent the high point of positive sentiment, meaning short sellers have likely covered their positions and remaining buying interest is dwindling.

The biggest threat to Monero’s price isn’t necessarily new selling, but existing holders looking to cut their losses. Many people bought Monero between $400 and $750 earlier this year and are currently operating at a loss. As the price rises and approaches $400, they’ll be more likely to sell to minimize those losses. This potential supply isn’t reflected in typical volume charts because these holders haven’t sold yet. However, once the price hits between $400 and $450, this group could become a significant selling pressure. Data shows this was the largest group of buyers during that period, making them a key factor to watch.

Continuation Over Reversal

As of late April 2026, my research suggests the current trend is likely to continue rather than reverse. The recent price increase was driven by consistent buying, and importantly, wasn’t fueled by retail investors, which often signals instability. Even with the recent 6.9% dip from $405, the price remains above the 200-day moving average, and momentum indicators are still showing strength. What’s particularly encouraging is that the lack of retail participation actually *strengthens* the market structure, making it more resilient, not weaker.

A price closing above $386, combined with consistent buying pressure in futures over at least three days, would confirm the price increase on April 27th was a significant shift, potentially leading to a retest of $405. Conversely, a daily close below $374.56 with selling pressure in futures would suggest the April 27th move was just a temporary bounce, bringing the price back down to the $340-$355 range. The 200-day moving average should resolve this situation within four trading days.

This article is just for informational purposes and shouldn’t be taken as financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com doesn’t suggest or support any particular investment or cryptocurrency. Before you make any investment choices, be sure to do your own research and talk to a qualified financial advisor.

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2026-04-28 13:38