The Great Bitcoin Gamble: Traders Bet on Doom, Not a Boom!

by

What to know:

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Bitcoin’s feeble attempt to rally has ignited the kind of optimism usually reserved for prisoners spotting a guard’s misplaced keys. Social media buzzes with declarations of a “bottom in,” as if the market’s latest performance is less a bull run and more a bureaucratic fiasco. Yet, in the shadowed corners of the options market, traders sip their tea and mutter, “This is not a recovery-it’s a prelude to a fall below $60,000.”

“While the bounce triggered some call buying in the $85,000 to $90,000 strikes,” said Sidrah Fariq, a Deribit oracle, “downside skew remains more elevated than upside, suggesting caution.” A rare smile crossed her lips. One imagines her chuckling at the naivety of those who confuse a trampoline bounce for a moonshot.

The demand for call options, these bullish bets, reveals a curious paradox: some traders chase the dream of $70,000, yet the skew-a measure of fear-remains stubbornly negative. It is the financial equivalent of building a raft while staring at a storm cloud. The $60,000 put, with $1.48 billion in open interest, stands as a monument to pessimism, dwarfing the $90,000 call’s $1.12 billion. Bearishness, it seems, is the new black.

Yet there is a glimmer of hope, or perhaps a flicker of irony. Dealer positioning has flipped positive between $60,000 and $70,000, a move that suggests they may soon play both sides of the market-buying low and selling high, like a sly fox in a henhouse of volatility. “Compressed volatility and range-bound action,” Fariq noted, as if describing a cage with invisible bars.

Analysts now fixate on the $74,000-$75,000 range, a magic number that could either confirm a trend reversal or serve as a funeral shroud for bullish hopes. Meanwhile, Bitcoin hovers near $68,500, up 4.6%, while the broader market dances higher, leaving crypto’s underdog heroes-Ether, XRP, SOL-to prance ahead like overcaffeinated squirrels.

In traditional markets, futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 remain indifferent, even as Nvidia’s earnings report blazes like a supernova. Gold and the Dollar Index inch upward, as investors await U.S.-Iran talks with the patience of a man waiting for a bus in Siberia. Stay alert, indeed.

What to Watch

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.

  • Crypto
    • Nothing scheduled.
  • Macro
    • Feb. 26, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. initial jobless claims for week ending Feb. 21 (Prev. 206K)
    • Feb. 26, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman to testify before the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs.
  • Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
    • Feb. 26: American Bitcoin (ABTC), pre-market, $0.01
    • Feb. 26: MARA Holdings (MARA), post-market, -$0.11
    • Feb 26: TeraWulf (WULF), post-market, -$0.15
    • Feb. 26: Figure Technologies (FIGR), post-market,$0.20
    • Feb. 26: Sui Group (SUIG), post-market, $0.01
    • Feb. 26: Block (XYZ), post-market, $0.49

Token Events

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.

Conferences

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.

  • Day 4 of 4: Strategy World 2026 (Las Vegas)
  • Day 3 of 4: GFTN Forum Japan (Tokyo)

Market Movements

  • BTC is down 0.52% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday at $68,590.57 (24hrs: +4.67%)
  • ETH is down 1.16% at $2,075.97 (24hrs: +8.36%)
  • CoinDesk 20 is down 1.27% at 2,011.66 (24hrs: +5.83%)
  • Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 2 bps at 2.85%
  • BTC funding rate is at 0.0005% (0.5595% annualized) on Binance

  • DXY is unchanged at 97.75
  • Gold futures are down 0.41% at $5,204.60
  • Silver futures are down 3.98% at $87.99
  • Nikkei 225 closed up 0.29% at 58,753.39
  • Hang Seng closed down 1.44% at 26,381.02
  • FTSE is up 0.17% at 10,824.61
  • Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.25% at 6,188.91
  • DJIA closed on Wednesday up 0.63% at 49,482.15
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.81% at 6,946.13
  • Nasdaq Composite closed up 1.26% at 23,152.08
  • S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.46% at 34,127.33
  • S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.68% at 3,826.41
  • U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 0.4 bps at 4.052%
  • E-mini S&P 500 futures are unchanged at 6,958.75
  • E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are unchanged at 25,380.75
  • E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 0.13% at 49,471.00

Bitcoin Stats

  • BTC Dominance: 58.55% (+0.12%)
  • Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03023 (-0.12%)
  • Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,058 EH/s
  • Hashprice (spot): $29.79
  • Total fees: 2.91 BTC / $194,801
  • CME Futures Open Interest: 112,135 BTC
  • BTC priced in gold: 13.2 oz.
  • BTC vs gold market cap: 4.57%

Technical Analysis

  • The chart shows bitcoin’s weekly price swings in candlestick format since mid-2024.
  • While prices have bounced strongly this week, they remain well below the $73,000-$74,000 zone that is a former support-turned-resistance.
  • The broader outlook, therefore, remains bearish. Prices need to overcome that resistance to confirm a trend reversal higher.

Crypto Equities

  • Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Wednesday at $183.94 (+13.52%), +0.95% at $185.69 in pre-market
  • Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $83.14 (+35.47%), +0.71% at $83.73
  • Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $22.83 (+5.99%), +1.40% at $23.15
  • Bullish (BLSH): closed at $32.89 (+6.92%), -1.03% at $32.55
  • MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $8.57 (+6.46%), unchanged in pre-market
  • Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $17.08 (+3.52%), -0.12% at $17.06
  • Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $18.08 (+1.18%), -0.22% at $18.04
  • CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $10.45 (+0.97%), +0.29% at $10.48
  • CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $42.34 (-0.87%)
  • Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $10.63 (+8.91%)

Crypto Treasury Companies

  • Strategy (MSTR): closed at $135.65 (+8.86%), -0.18% at $135.41
  • Strive (ASST): closed at $8.54 (+19.19%), -1.41% at $8.42
  • SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $7.44 (+13.59%), +0.27% at $7.46
  • Upexi (UPXI): closed at $0.83 (+35.86%), +4.53% at $0.86
  • Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.18 (+6.31%)

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

  • Daily net flows: $506.6 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $54.56 billion
  • Total BTC holdings ~1.26 million

Spot ETH ETFs

  • Daily net flows: $157.2 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $11.67 billion
  • Total ETH holdings ~5.64 million

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2026-02-26 15:28