As an analyst tracking prediction markets, I’ve observed a significant shift in expectations surrounding the CLARITY Act. After two US senators finalized language addressing a key point of contention, the probability of the bill becoming law in 2026, as predicted by Polymarket traders, jumped nine percentage points in a single day, now standing at 55%.
Banks Got Restrictions, Crypto Got Rewards
A new proposal released Friday by Senators Thom Tillis and Angela Alsobrooks addresses how stablecoins earn returns. It prohibits crypto companies from paying interest to customers who hold stablecoins, a practice some argued resembled bank accounts and unfairly competed with traditional banks.
However, companies can still offer rewards for genuine activity, like actually using crypto platforms or networks, as defined in the bill.
Coinbase’s top lawyer, Faryar Shirzad, said the result was positive for customers. He explained that while banks succeeded in limiting some rewards, they preserved Americans’ ability to earn them by actually using cryptocurrency.
The final rewards text in the CLARITY Act is now public.
From the beginning, we’ve pointed out that a lot of the concerns raised in this discussion weren’t supported by facts or a solid grasp of how cryptocurrency functions. The debate often focused on potential problems that weren’t based in reality.
Nevertheless, the crypto industry showed…
— Faryar Shirzad (@faryarshirzad) May 1, 2026
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong was more direct, stating the news meant the Senate Banking Committee should pass the bill without delay.
The outcome didn’t please everyone. Helius Labs CEO Mert Mumtaz pointed out that it essentially meant Americans couldn’t earn interest on their money without using a traditional bank.
Senate Markup Could Come As Early As May 11
According to Alex Thorn, Galaxy Digital’s head of research, the publication of the complete bill text suggests the Senate Banking Committee might begin reviewing and potentially amending it the week of May 11th.
This would speed up the progress of a bill that had been stuck for months, largely because there was no consensus on how stablecoins should generate returns.
CLARITY ACT — text of tillis (R) / alsobrooks (D) compromise on stablecoin yield is out now
they previously said they had “agreement in principle”
Recently published information indicates the Senate Banking Committee is likely to schedule a vote on the bill very soon, potentially as early as the week of May 11th.
— Alex Thorn (@intangiblecoins) May 1, 2026
Thorn also pointed out a potential problem. He anticipates banks will strongly oppose the bill once it’s scheduled for debate, suggesting the current compromise might not resolve the issue, but rather begin a new round of conflict.
Several senators have already indicated a timeframe for the bill. Bernie Moreno anticipates it will be completed by the end of May, while Senator Cynthia Lummis stressed the urgency in April, stating it’s a now-or-never situation.
A Long-Running Dispute Pushed To The Side
A disagreement over how stablecoins earn returns had been a major sticking point delaying the CLARITY Act, a bill aiming to create clearer rules for the cryptocurrency industry in the US. Now that this issue seems settled, lawmakers are focusing on the rest of the bill’s details.
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2026-05-02 11:46