Just this past weekend, the ever-dramatic President Trump chose to be a recluse, resulting in a swirling tempest of rumors about his worldly exit. Now, despite him being as fit as a fiddle, these wild tales prompted a staggering $1.6 million in pecuniary betting endeavors. Ain’t that rich?
These betting markets appear as stable as a three-legged mule, especially since Donald Trump Jr. is knee-deep in both Polymarket and Kalshi. It seems we’ve opened a veritable Pandora’s box for dubious new prediction markets, potentially lucrative enough to make a catfish chuckle into its water.
Trump’s “Demise”: The Hoax That Sprouted Wings
In this dizzying age of information, fiction can flair up faster than a prairie fire. Witness, if you will, the remarkable rise of rumors surrounding Trump’s supposed departure from this mortal coil. This ludicrous narrative galloped away on a major US holiday, fueled by Trump’s scarce public appearances – an open invitation for the fanciful to frolic.
Just listen to this charming quip:
“it’s so cool that we had 2 incredibly unwell, close to death presidents in a row”
– onion person (@CantEverDie) September 1, 2025
But lo and behold, now that Labor Day has graced the calendar, our dear President Trump is alive and kicking, having dubbed these wild accusations “sort of crazy” during some unrelated announcement. Ain’t it the truth that rumors are like rabbits – they multiply faster than a wink!
Nonetheless, this fantastic folly prompted an intriguing sight: gamblers risking their pennies and pocketbooks on whether Trump will vacate office in 2025, raking in over $1.6 million in prediction market bets.
Kalshi opened its doors to the market on Saturday, seeing the cash flow amount to over $700,000, while Polymarket decided to join the betting barn just last night.
In simpler terms, many a gambler was wagering on a market that would gladly payout in the unfortunate event of Trump’s passing. Kalshi, at least, only playfully accepts resignation or other non-fatal ousters – for better or worse.
“unlike Polymarket, on Kalshi these markets do not resolve to ‘yes’ if the person in question dies (they settle at the last traded price). i suspect many bettors don’t read the fine print, though.”
– Molly White (@molly0xFFF) September 2, 2025
The Wild Bets and Ethical Quicksand
This frenzy of trading activity is like fireworks on the Fourth of July, signaling a curious interest in the subject, even if the gamblers never had more belief than 13% that our dear Trump was about to take a permanent vacation.
Several news outlets jumped into the fray, theorizing he might just be feeling inclined to announce his resignation today (which would also tickle the conditions of the bets), yet let’s not get stuck there.
What’s worth pondering is Donald Trump Jr.’s snug little role in both gambling enterprises fluttering around his father’s supposed mortality. That’s akin to putting the fox in charge of the henhouse, if I ever saw it! Yet these markets are bustling along like a riverboat on a Saturday night.
Some intrepid journalists suggest that these prediction markets could be bending the limits of legal enforcement in this Web3 world under Trump. After all, Polymarket is presumed illegal in the good ol’ US of A, yet the law is about as enforced as a cat at a dog show. Kalshi, on the other hand, is cozying up to Brian Quintenz, who just might become the CFTC’s sole Commissioner if the stars align just right.
In other words, these bets spinning around Trump’s death rumors hold more than mere entertainment value. On one hand, it was a fleeting meme that collapsed faster than a bad soufflé the moment the President held a press conference. But on the flip side, it’s a rather unsettling trend. With this odd precedent set, the future might see more unsavory musings in the prediction markets, and lord help us all! 😅
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2025-09-03 02:42