By the numbers, prediction markets posted their second-highest notional volume in two years, which sounds suspiciously like a midlife crisis for spreadsheets. Data compiled by Dune Analytics shows roughly $25.7 billion in March, with Polymarket and Kalshi hogging most of the attention-and yes, I’m supposed to pretend this is adult behavior.
Key Takeaways:
- Dune Analytics logs $25.7B March volume; Polymarket and Kalshi dominate as activity concentrates.
- Polymarket hit 115M trades vs Kalshi 88M in March; scale signals deeper market adoption.
- CFTC scrutiny and U.S. lawmakers target markets as Polymarket, Kalshi near $940M open interest.
Polymarket and Kalshi Drive Billions in Volume
Data from Dune.com, compiled by @datadashboards, shows prediction market volume continuing to push new highs. January 2026 figures place the month at the highest pinnacle for notional volume, reaching a record $26.75 billion, followed by February’s $23.24 billion. With March’s figures now finalized, it ranks as the second-largest on record at $25.7 billion.
When combined with April’s $3.9 billion, as the month is incomplete, the cumulative total reaches $162.64 billion since Jan. 1, 2024. While March’s figures spanned seven distinct markets, Kalshi and Polymarket led the field with $13 billion and $10 billion, respectively. Polymarket’s volume is largely driven by politics, followed by crypto, sports, and global events.
The Dune dashboard indicates Kalshi sees heightened activity across economics, financials, and politics, while also extending into niche segments such as climate and weather, as well as transportation. Trailing the dominant figures posted by Polymarket and Kalshi, Crypto.com, Opinion, Limitless, Predict.fun, and Overtime.io make up the remaining cohort.
March recorded a sharp increase in activity, reaching approximately 207 million transactions across all tracked prediction markets. This marks a notable month-over-month rise compared to February’s 155 million. Once again, Polymarket and Kalshi took the top spots, with Polymarket accounting for 115 million transfers and Kalshi registering 88 million.
At the time of writing, prediction markets collectively hold about $939.86 million in open interest, with activity heavily concentrated on the two platforms. Kalshi leads with $487.21 million, followed by Polymarket at $422.09 million, meaning the pair represents the vast majority of today’s total positioning. Smaller platforms sit well behind, with Predict.fun at $19.51 million and Opinion at $10.38 million.
The remaining venues contribute only marginally, including Limitless with roughly $666,520 and others totaling just $3,760, pointing to a sharply top-heavy market structure. Polymarket and Kalshi have attracted this demand even as several headwinds persist, including controversy tied to specific markets related to the U.S.-Iran conflict. Democratic lawmakers have largely opposed prediction markets and have advanced legislation aimed at tightening oversight.
The two dominant platforms are also navigating state-level rules that conflict with federal guidance, particularly from the CFTC. Even so, open interest and notional volumes continue climbing on Polymarket and Kalshi despite criticism and the prospect of regulatory action. How long that momentum holds remains uncertain, but prediction markets have clearly carved out a durable role.
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2026-04-07 00:57