Is Cardano (ADA) Dead? What’s Next for the Struggling Crypto?

<a href="https://thbusd.com/ada-usd/">Cardano</a> Is Down Over 91% From Its Peak – Is <a href="https://jpygbp.com/ada-usd/">ADA</a> a Dead Coin?

Key Takeaways

ADA is down over 91% from its all-time high and continues to lag the broader crypto market
Santiment data shows a -43% average return for active Cardano wallets over the past year – but flags it as a potential buy zone
Two major protocol upgrades are coming in 2026: Van Rossem (April) and Ouroboros Leios (mid-2026)
Technical indicators show early signs of momentum, but price remains below key moving averages

Cardano’s value continues to decline. As of today, the token has dropped 7.40% in the last week, and its market value is just under $9.6 billion. This is a significant change from 2021, when Cardano was a top five cryptocurrency – it even briefly surpassed major tokens like USDT and BNB, reaching a $39 billion market cap and the number 3 position. Now, newer altcoins like Hyperliquid (HYPE) and Binance Coin (BNB) have overtaken ADA, despite not being considered major players just a few years ago.

Altcoins have generally struggled in the crypto market recently, but Cardano has fared even worse than most.

What the On-Chain Data Actually Says

Sentiment analytics firm Santiment recently published findings that are worth paying attention to.

Data shows that Cardano wallets active over the last year have experienced average returns of around -43%, coinciding with a 71% drop in price since September. However, Santiment isn’t interpreting this as a negative sign, but rather as a potential opportunity. They point out that historically, this level of negative MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) often indicates an ‘opportunity zone’ – a point where further selling is limited, and prices are statistically likely to recover.

Analysts also noticed that Cardano had a very high number of short trades open on Binance – the highest since June 2023. This suggests many traders are betting the price will go down, and these situations can often lead to sudden, unexpected price increases. Funding rates are designed to discourage everyone from taking the same position, and this situation could result in those betting against Cardano losing money.

This isn’t a sure thing, but it implies that the potential benefits now outweigh the risks more than when ADA was priced at $1.50 and falling.

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) have created a new way of categorizing cryptocurrencies. They’ve placed Cardano, along with other altcoins, into a group called “digital commodities.” This classification could be important for attracting institutional investors and getting listed on major exchanges in the future.

What’s Actually Being Built

Setting aside its price and how it performs compared to other cryptocurrencies, Cardano has a particularly ambitious and technically challenging development plan for 2026.

We’re about to launch two significant improvements that will move us from building the foundation to growing and expanding what we’ve already created.

Van Rossem Hard Fork – April 2026

The Van Rossem upgrade, also known as Protocol 11, is planned for April 2026. It’s a relatively simple update to the Cardano network because it adds new features to the current system without requiring changes to existing transactions. This makes it easier to implement than previous major upgrades.

The main benefit of this upgrade is for developers building on Cardano. It introduces new features to Plutus, Cardano’s smart contract language, that significantly reduce the cost of running complex calculations directly on the blockchain. Key improvements include Modular Exponentiation (CIP-109) for more efficient cryptographic proofs, and Multi-Scalar Multiplication (CIP-133) to speed up operations with BLS12-381 curves, which are essential for advanced zero-knowledge applications. Plutus will also natively support arrays, fixing a long-standing performance problem with how data lists are handled. This upgrade is included in Cardano Node version 10.7.0, which is currently being tested before being fully launched on the main network.

Ouroboros Leios – Mid-to-Late 2026

Leios represents a major upgrade for Cardano. It completely changes how the network confirms transactions, switching from processing them one after another to handling many at the same time. This will significantly improve efficiency.

Currently, Cardano can process between 10 and 20 transactions per second. Leios aims to significantly increase this to between 1,000 and 1,500 transactions per second, and potentially reach up to 10,000 in ideal conditions. It achieves this through a new three-part block structure: Input Blocks collect large amounts of transaction data, Endorsement Blocks verify this data, and Ranking Blocks confirm the final order of transactions on the blockchain. This design is intended to keep the network running efficiently without any wasted time.

By January 2026, the design for Leios (CIP-0164) will be finished, and development will be about 67% complete. Before launching fully, a rigorous testing phase, called “Face Melting Net,” is scheduled for mid-2026. This phase will use artificial intelligence to put the system through its paces.

Technical Picture: Cautiously Watching

Currently, ADA/USDT is trading around $0.2654. Looking at the 4-hour chart, the price is below the 50-period Simple Moving Average ($0.2701) and very close to the 100-period SMA ($0.2658). This indicates a weak technical position, as the price hasn’t been able to convincingly move above either of these moving averages.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 56.43, which is a neutral reading. However, it’s a significant jump from 39.10 just a few days ago. This quick recovery, especially while the price hasn’t changed much, is an important sign that buyers are starting to become more active, even if it’s not immediately obvious.

Looking at the MACD, I’m seeing a potential shift in momentum. The MACD line is now above the signal line, and the histogram is starting to turn green after a prolonged downtrend. It’s still an early indicator, not a confirmed breakout yet. Encouragingly, I’ve also noticed a slight increase in volume – around 16.92 million ADA on the latest candles. It’s not a huge spike, but it suggests this move might be more than just random fluctuation.

Keep an eye on the $0.27 to $0.2750 level. This is where a key moving average and previous resistance meet. If the price clearly closes above this range with strong trading volume, it would be a significant positive signal. Conversely, if the price falls below $0.25, it could trigger further selling, potentially pushing the price down to between $0.23 and $0.24.

Is Cardano Dead?

While Cardano (ADA) hasn’t failed completely, it’s facing significant challenges and many investors are becoming discouraged.

The planned updates for Cardano are realistic and achievable from a technical standpoint. If successful, the Leios upgrade would significantly increase Cardano’s transaction speed, making it a strong competitor to networks like Solana and other newer blockchain platforms. Furthermore, Van Rossem is steadily expanding the capabilities for developers without interrupting the network, and these improvements are not just empty promises.

The core issue is the gap between how quickly Cardano is developing and how long investors are willing to wait. The crypto world changes rapidly, trends come and go quickly, and Cardano has been saying things are coming “soon” for quite a while. Both current supporters and those observing from outside are aware of this.

Based on blockchain data, ADA’s price might be stabilizing. Technical analysis also indicates some positive movement is starting. If upcoming upgrades are released as planned, ADA could have a strong narrative for growth in the latter half of 2026.

On the bright side, a lot of Cardano (ADA) investors purchased their holdings at the peak price. Even those who bought at lower prices are currently seeing losses, with most investors ‘under water’ – meaning the current price is below their purchase price. This suggests a large-scale sell-off is less likely right now, as those motivated to sell at a loss probably represent a smaller group.

This article is for informational purposes only and shouldn’t be taken as financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com doesn’t support or suggest any particular investment or cryptocurrency. Before making any investment choices, be sure to do your own research and talk to a qualified financial advisor.

2026-03-24 13:47