Is Bitcoin’s Flow Pulse a Russian Play? Chekhov’s Shocking Take!

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In a most mundane afternoon, an analyst observed that the Bitcoin Inter‑Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP) has been in a relentless decline, much like a village idiot’s spoken lullaby, yet its descent is gradually flattening, like a tired loaf of rye sliding to a stop.

Bitcoin IFP Nearing a Bottom, Chekhov‑Style

Maartunn, a keen eye in the CryptoQuant community, posted on X that the IFP, a peculiar on‑chain indicator watching BTC traffic between spot and derivative platforms, has had a recent run of bearish theatrics. Imagine a river of coins bleeding into the black‑inked ledger of derivatives, then weakening, maybe spilling into a mailbox that never quite receives them.

When the metric climbs, it means more coins sprint from the comfort of spot markets to the precarious edge of derivatives-fueling speculation, the kind that feels like whispering rumors in a tavern where the bartender knows everyone. Conversely, a dip suggests traders are from a meticulous family, tightening their purse strings and lowering their risk, slicing their transactions like a kitchen knife in a bureaucrat’s kitchen.

Below is the chart Maartunn included, showing the IFP trend and its 90‑day moving average over the past decade:

The graph reveals that the IFP was on a gentle ascension toward the end of 2024, but 2025 flipped a coin in reverse. Flows to derivatives dipped, the metric slipped under its 90‑day moving average, and the signal-a faint, wind‑whispered warning of a bear or a correction-settled in. Yet, like an unexpected spring, Bitcoin rallied during 2025’s second half, shattering old records, as if a stubborn protagonist had decided “Enough, now!”

Fast‑forward to 2021, a similar script played: a bullish arc in the latter half of the year while the IFP issued a bearish omen. The chart makes it clear, the bearish trend persisted until the bottom of the 2022 bear market, flattening before turning upward. The 2018 bear market posted a comparable scene. Grasping the past, we can’t help but speculate that Bitcoin might discover a bottom with an IFP reversal this time as well-a somber round‑trip, much like a journey of a shy tenor seeking applause.

Today, the early flicker of a reversal might just be flickering softly; the indicator has become almost stubborn, moving sideways. “The Inter‑Exchange Flow Pulse is still in a bearish phase, but it’s starting to flatten out,” the analyst noted, sounding half‑serious, half‑humorous, like a clerk announcing a town rumor in a dingy office.

Indeed, whether the apparent shift is a real change or merely a seasonal mirage remains uncertain, and the IFP will be closely watched, especially if a shift in capital flows occurs. “Watch this metric closely in the coming weeks,” offered Maartunn, as one would advise the legless bishop to keep reading the letter that never arrives.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is hovering around $67,300, up 1.3% over the last week-almost as if the market were a juicy apple that has slightly shifted in bathe, marginally higher, yet still cold enough to be plucked.

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2026-02-18 21:15