Ethereum’s Bumpy Ride: Why It Keeps Hitting the Wall (and What It Means for You)

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So, you thought Ethereum was on the brink of a glorious comeback? Well, think again! It’s currently enjoying a modest 1% uptick over the last 24 hours, cozying up near that elusive $2,000 mark. But let’s not kid ourselves; this isn’t Ethereum’s first rodeo. In fact, in the span of just ten days (from February 6 to February 15), ETH has attempted three separate rebounds. Each time it strutted out confidently, only to crash and burn spectacularly.

Now, let’s consult our trusty charts to figure out why each of these attempts went down in flames. Spoiler alert: a lot needs to change if Ethereum is ever going to stop playing hard to get with bullish predictions.

Ascending Triangle Shows Recovery Attempt – But Resistance Lingers

Picture this: Ethereum has been forming an ascending triangle since early February, which sounds fancy but really just means buyers are pushing prices up while sellers are valiantly defending their turf. Think of it as a game of tug-of-war where one side is really enthusiastic but the other side has packed a picnic.

The trendline is like a patient parent, gently nudging buyers to step in earlier during each dip. Alas, those pesky resistance zones around $2,000 and $2,120 have thwarted every single rebound attempt thus far.

Let’s break it down: On February 6, Ethereum made a valiant leap of 23% but stumbled just shy of $2,120. Then on February 12, it decided to give it another go, rising 11%, but alas, it flopped once more below the resistance. And on February 15, after a 7% climb, it found itself yet again under the $2,000 ceiling. It’s like watching a dog chase its tail-exciting at first, but ultimately futile.

Now, one glimmer of hope for our beleaguered cryptocurrency is the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF). This nifty indicator measures large investor buying and selling by combining price and volume. When the CMF bounces above zero, it signals more buying than selling. And guess what? Ethereum’s CMF squeaked above zero on February 15 during its third rebound attempt, hovering around 0.05. Sounds promising, right? Well, hold your horses; the buying strength is still looking a bit weak.

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This leads us to a burning question: If buyers are back in the game, why does the Ethereum price keep floundering? Well, let’s take a peek at the whales and long-term holders, shall we?

Whale and Long-Term Holder Selling Increased

As Ethereum was gallantly trying to recover, large investors were quietly retreating. Those big fish-affectionately known as whales-cut their holdings from 113.92 million ETH to 113.66 million ETH. That’s a whopping decline of about 260,000 ETH, or roughly $500 million. Talk about a party pooper!

It turns out these whales were busy selling ETH instead of cheering from the sidelines during the recovery attempts.

And there’s more! The Hodler Net Position Change metric is like the referee in this match, tracking whether long-term investors are buying or selling. When this number dips into the negative zone, it signals long-term holders are packing their bags and heading for the exit.

Ethereum’s Holder Net Position Change was firmly in the red between February 3 and February 16 (the same period as our three failed rebounds), showing an increase in selling pressure from -13,677 ETH to -18,411 ETH-a delightful 34% rise in “get me outta here” sentiment.

Now, the timing of this selling is crucial. Each failed rebound coincided with this spike in selling. It’s almost as if the universe conspired against Ethereum’s recovery!

But wait, there’s another reason our dear ETH struggles with the $2,000 and $2,120 hurdles.

Cost Basis Data Shows Why Ethereum Price Keeps Failing Near $2,000

Let’s dive into the exciting world of cost basis data-yes, I can hear the yawns already! This data reveals where investors originally bought their Ethereum, which can create resistance levels when prices revisit these points. Currently, the largest cost basis cluster lies between $1,995 and $2,015, where over 1.01 million ETH were purchased. That’s like a fortress of selling pressure!

When Ethereum flirts with this level again, many investors opt to sell off to recoup their initial investments. The result? An influx of supply that caps any hopes of rising further. This pattern has played out in each of the three failed rebounding attempts. Each time, Ethereum stuttered near-or just above-this same cost basis zone.

For Ethereum to kick off a stronger recovery, it must decisively break through this level. For now, it’s wedged between support and resistance like a sandwich caught in a vending machine.

Immediate resistance levels loom at $2,000 (the most critical for now) and $2,120, as previously mentioned. However, if we sprinkle in some technical projections, we might find new levels surfacing. If Ethereum manages to break above the $2,120-$2,140 zone, we could be looking at ambitious targets of $2,210 and $2,300.

On the flip side, if it fails to breach these resistance levels, Ethereum might just be doomed to wander sideways forever. Support is lurking near $1,895, and a dip below that would invalidate our trendline-led recovery hopes. The charts hint at potential recovery attempts, while the CMF suggests buyers are creeping back in. But with whale selling, long-term holder exodus, and stubborn cost basis resistance, Ethereum’s rally remains an uphill battle.

So, there you have it: Ethereum’s future now hinges on whether buyers can finally absorb this selling pressure and break through those pesky resistance levels. Fingers crossed!

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2026-02-17 15:11