A new report from Citi warns that quantum computers are developing faster than expected, and could potentially break the security of digital currencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum as early as 2030-2032. Bitcoin is considered more vulnerable than Ethereum, not just due to its technical design, but also because it would be very challenging to quickly update its security systems due to how the network is managed.
Citi analysts point to Ethereum’s frequent and successful history of software updates – often called ‘hard forks’ – as a key strength. They believe this makes Ethereum more secure and better prepared to withstand potential future threats from quantum computers compared to other systems.
Citi believes Bitcoin could be particularly vulnerable to future quantum computing threats as technology advances. However, this is a common, and often exaggerated, fear. Quantum computing isn’t expected to pose a real risk to cryptocurrency security for many years. Currently, the market is focused on more pressing, short-term issues, and this concern is largely considered irrelevant at the moment.
— Kris Sato (@kris_nakamoto) May 19, 2026
I’ve been reading a report from Citi, and it’s got me thinking about quantum computing and its potential impact on crypto. Apparently, Google is making serious progress with its quantum hardware. Their researchers believe a machine with around 500,000 qubits could crack today’s encryption – the stuff that keeps our crypto secure – in just minutes. They’re aiming for this to be a reality by 2032, but some experts think it could happen as early as 2030. It’s a bit concerning, honestly, and something I’m definitely keeping an eye on as an investor.
Neither machine exists today, but the trajectory is no longer a matter of theoretical debate.
EXPLORE: Best Crypto Signals Group Just Added An Online Poker Channel
Shor’s Algorithm and ECDSA: What the Quantum Threat to Blockchain Security Actually Represents
Here’s how it works: both Bitcoin and Ethereum protect users’ money with a security system called ECDSA. This system is based on the idea that it’s extremely difficult for anyone to figure out your secret ‘private key’ if all they have is your public ‘key’ – a concept in cryptography.
This problem is too complex for even the most powerful traditional computers to solve within a reasonable time – the calculations would take longer than the universe has existed. However, a quantum computer using Shor’s algorithm could solve it efficiently, making it possible to figure out the private key from a public key.
Not all wallets are equally vulnerable. While public keys are hidden until a transaction is sent, there’s a brief window of time between sending and confirming a transaction where a powerful quantum computer could potentially crack the key and steal funds. This is a greater risk for wallets that have already been used, as their public keys are permanently recorded on the blockchain.
BSC Post-Quantum Upgrade Passes Test, but TPS Falls 40%
BNB Chain has published a report detailing its progress on upgrading to post-quantum cryptography. Testing involved using ML-DSA-44 for signing transactions and pqSTARK for how votes are counted, and the overall system design is still under development.
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) May 19, 2026
According to a recent analysis by Citi, between 6.7 and 7 million Bitcoin are held in wallets where the wallet addresses are publicly known, making them a prime target for potential attacks. A significant portion of this – around 1 million Bitcoin, potentially originating from Bitcoin’s creator, Satoshi Nakamoto – is stored using older, less secure address formats. These holdings are currently worth about $82 billion. The core security concern is the potential breaking of the complex math – specifically, the difficulty of solving discrete logarithm problems on elliptic curves – that protects these wallets.
When a quantum computer powerful enough to break current encryption standards – specifically by running Shor’s algorithm on 256-bit encryption – becomes a reality, many of our current security assumptions will no longer hold true.
Ethereum News: ETH Hard Fork Culture, The Structural Governance Advantage Over Bitcoin
What sets the recent Citi analysis apart isn’t Ethereum’s underlying technology – it uses a standard encryption method similar to Bitcoin and faces the same potential risks from future computing advancements. Instead, the key difference is how quickly Ethereum can adapt. Its developers and community have repeatedly shown they can work together to make significant changes to the system, and do so much faster than other cryptocurrencies.
In September 2022, Ethereum completed ‘The Merge,’ a major upgrade that switched how transactions are verified from ‘proof-of-work’ to ‘proof-of-stake’ – a change as significant as preparing for future quantum-resistant cryptography, and it did so without dividing the network. Updates like EIP-1559 (the Dencun upgrade) and the upcoming Pectra hard fork demonstrate that Ethereum can successfully implement complex changes across all its software clients, using the same processes that would be needed to protect it from quantum computing threats.
Ethereum is likely to quickly push through a new technical upgrade aimed at protecting against future quantum computing threats. This is largely because they need a positive story to regain momentum and compete with Bitcoin.
this will be hyped by Coinbase.eth and every VC bag holder, accompanied by a…
— Bit Paine ⚡️ (@BitPaine) January 25, 2026
Vitalik Buterin explained that Ethereum would likely have plenty of warning if quantum computers became powerful enough to threaten its security. He stated that Ethereum could then be upgraded through a ‘hard fork’ to use more secure signature methods.
As a crypto investor, I’ve been following the discussions around preparing for quantum computing. The Ethereum Foundation researchers are looking at ways to upgrade to post-quantum cryptography (PQC) without making it a hassle for users. Basically, they’re suggesting we use smart contract wallets – specifically those built with ERC-4337 standards – to allow us to hold both our current keys *and* new, quantum-resistant ones. The cool part is that the wallet itself could handle switching over to the PQC signatures automatically, so we wouldn’t have to worry about manually upgrading our keys. It’s a really smart way to future-proof our holdings without a lot of technical headaches.
NIST choosing CRYSTALS-Dilithium as a standard for lattice-based signatures gives us a real algorithm to move forward with. This isn’t just a future plan – it’s a clear technical path, with established procedures and now, official support from Citi Research.
Bitcoin faces unique challenges in preparing for quantum computing. Its design prioritizes stability, making quick updates to the system – the kind needed to defend against quantum threats – very difficult.
Citi analysts are keeping an eye on proposed Bitcoin upgrades known as BIP-360 and BIP-361, but they haven’t gained widespread support yet. At the Financial Times Digital Asset Summit, Fireblocks CEO Michael Shaulov downplayed the threat of quantum computing to Bitcoin, explaining that the necessary algorithms already exist and the main challenge is getting the Bitcoin community to coordinate and implement solutions. While Shaulov meant this to be a positive outlook, Citi analysts actually see this lack of coordination as a significant worry.
DISCOVER: Best Meme Coins to Buy in 2026
Read More
- USD TRY PREDICTION
- CNY JPY PREDICTION
- GBP USD PREDICTION
- FIL PREDICTION. FIL cryptocurrency
- Gold Rate Forecast
- USD RUB PREDICTION
- USD CNY PREDICTION
- PI PREDICTION. PI cryptocurrency
- USD JPY PREDICTION
- USD BRL PREDICTION
2026-05-19 17:50