Crypto’s Anxious Week: Doom or Boom?

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The American economic and political scene, as always, threatens to be frightfully busy this week – a spectacle to which even the devotees of those digital baubles, ‘cryptocurrencies,’ are compelled to attend. One anticipates a good deal of fretful hand-wringing over interest rates, the stubborn persistence of inflation, and the potential for general governmental idiocy. All of which, naturally, may have an effect on the fluctuating fortunes of Bitcoin and its less distinguished relations.

Let us, with a weary sigh, examine the horrors to come.

28 Jan : FOMC interest-rate decision, Powell’s Speech

On January 28th, the Federal Reserve will, in its infinite wisdom, pronounce upon interest rates, followed, of course, by a homily from Mr. Powell. The CME FedWatch Tool, a curiously named oracle, suggests a 97% probability they will leave things precisely as they are. A startling display of courage, or perhaps merely inertia.

Should rates remain unchanged – and one wouldn’t wager against it – the crypto contingent will hang on Mr. Powell’s every utterance, seeking a hint of forthcoming reductions. Lower rates, it seems, are considered by this group to be conducive to reckless speculation, which is, one supposes, a matter of taste.

29 Jan: Jobs Data and Crypto Market Structure Bill in Focus

January 29th delivers the Initial Jobless Claims data, a grim reckoning of the employed and the, shall we say, ‘disemployed.’ The forecasts suggest a marginal uptick to 202,000. A rising number, naturally, will be presented as a sign of impending economic collapse, thus justifying further meddling by the authorities.

The Senate Agriculture Committee, in a display of legislative exuberance, is also scheduled to ‘review’ a crypto market structure bill. One shudders to think what particular brand of regulatory overreach this will entail.

JUST IN: The @SenateAg Committee has rescheduled its crypto market structure markup for 10:30 a.m. Thursday.

– Eleanor Terrett (@EleanorTerrett) January 26, 2026

Should this bill stumble into law, it may, so the optimists claim, ‘improve regulatory clarity’ and ‘reduce market manipulation.’ In simpler terms, it will probably tie everything up in knots and provide new opportunities for rent-seeking behavior. Nevertheless, the long-term holders of these digital curiosities appear to regard it as a ‘confidence boost.’ One can only assume their standards are exceptionally low.

Jan 30: US PPI Inflation Data

January 30th brings the Producer Price Index (PPI) data, along with the ever-present threat of a governmental shutdown. PPI is expected to remain stubbornly at 3%, a figure which will be dissected and agonized over as if it contained the secrets of the universe.

If inflation remains ‘calm’ – a dubious concept these days – and the politicians avoid spectacularly failing to reach an agreement, the crypto markets might experience a flicker of positivity. But one should not hold one’s breath.

31 Jan: Government Shutdown Fears

On January 31st, the specter of a U.S. government shutdown loomed large. Prediction markets, those sophisticated arbiters of fate, briefly indicated an 80% chance of closure after Senate Democrats exhibited their customary intransigence.

While the consensus remains that the government will somehow muddle through, the uncertainty itself creates a rather unpleasant atmosphere for all involved. A temporary inconvenience, no doubt, but a symptom of a deeper malaise.

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2026-01-27 09:51