Cryptic Happenings: A Week of Uncertainty and Opportunity

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The cryptocurrency markets have experienced a slight dip over the weekend, only to rise again as the second half of the year commences.

Meanwhile, the US House narrowly passed President Trump’s $3.4 trillion fiscal package, which is advantageous for American corporations, late last week.

Economic figures from last week also indicate a strengthening job market and potential optimism for consumer spending.

However, the markets may be preparing for volatility as energy outlooks, US bond auctions, Federal Reserve minutes, and tariff deadlines all loom within days this week.

Economic Events July 7 to 11

On Monday, we await the May’s Consumer Credit Change report, which measures the monthly change in total outstanding consumer credit, excluding mortgage debt. This reflects consumer borrowing and spending trends.

Tuesday brings two reports: June’s Business Optimism Index, which gauges the health of small businesses and their expectations, and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) short-term energy outlook, which could impact sentiment.

Wednesday will see the minutes from the last central bank meeting, which will be scrutinized for any further hints on future interest-rate cuts. The market now only sees a 4% chance of a July rate cut and is not pricing in a move until October, according to analysts.

However, the key event is the July 9 deadline when the 90-day pause in US reciprocal tariffs ends.

“The most severe outcome would be the US imposing the previously announced high tariffs on all trading partners without a trade deal,” UBS Global Wealth Management analysts said in a note, according to the WSJ.

However, if President Trump postpones the tariffs again, investors and markets might interpret this as a reluctance to implement them, which will support risk appetite.

There are also some significant bond sales this week, with the US Treasury selling $58 billion in three-year notes on Tuesday, $39 billion in ten-year notes on Wednesday, and $22 billion in 30-year bonds on Thursday.

Crypto Market Outlook

Total capitalization has picked up a little on Monday morning in Asia, reaching $3.44 trillion at the time of writing, still within its two-month trading channel.

Bitcoin has gained marginally, revisiting the $109,500 level twice over the past couple of hours and eyeing a return above $110,000, where it last visited on July 3.

A favorable outcome from the Trump administration on global tariffs on Wednesday could see a new all-time high, which is just 2.2% away at the moment.

Ethereum prices returned to tap $2,600 in late trading on Sunday, but resistance proved too strong yet again despite bullish developments last week.

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2025-07-07 09:04