Cardano Whales Accumulate 67% of Supply: SuperTrend Signals Bullish Reversal

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<a href="https://jpyxx.com/ada-usd/">Cardano</a> Whale Accumulation at All-time High as SuperTrend Turns Buy

Key Takeaways

  • 1M+ ADA wallets hold 25.09B tokens: all-time high, 67.47% of supply.
  • Supply concentration highest since July 2020.
  • SuperTrend flipped to buy on daily chart.
  • Primary target $0.33, secondary $0.42, invalidation $0.25.
  • SMA200 at $0.3441 sits above the $0.33 primary target and is the key level to clear.

What the accumulation data is measuring

Data from Santiment shows that large ADA holders – those with at least 1 million tokens – are collectively holding a record high of 25.09 billion ADA. This represents 67.47% of the total ADA currently in circulation, the largest amount held by this group since July 2020. This trend of accumulation has been ongoing since December 2023, with these large holders consistently increasing their ADA holdings even as the token’s market value dropped by 71%.

Despite a 71% drop in Cardano’s market value, large ADA holders now control 67.47% of the circulating supply. This isn’t necessarily a sign of an immediate price increase, but rather a pattern seen before previous rallies. Historically, when ownership became this concentrated – as it was in July 2020, before ADA reached $3.10 – it suggested a base of long-term holders who bought at lower prices and are willing to hold through market downturns. While this doesn’t guarantee another rally, it indicates a stable ownership structure often seen before sustained price increases – a limited number of coins available for sale held by committed, lower-cost investors.

Accumulation data doesn’t predict price increases. It shows that even after a significant 71% drop in price, holders haven’t been rushing to sell, suggesting the available supply for panic selling has decreased.

What the SuperTrend signal adds and where it points

Cardano analyst Ali Charts has been watching the SuperTrend indicator closely. Back on September 25th, 2025, it correctly predicted a price drop of 73%. Now, the indicator is showing a ‘buy’ signal, leading Ali Charts to believe the recent price decline is over and a new upward trend is starting.

Cardano could be about to kickstart a new bull rally!

I’ve found the SuperTrend indicator to be remarkably reliable in predicting Cardano’s long-term price movements. I started following it on September 25, 2025, and it accurately signaled a sell-off at the beginning of…

— Ali Charts (@alicharts)

Based on his analysis, the predicted price could initially reach $0.33, with a potential rise to $0.42 if the upward trend continues. However, if the price falls below $0.25, he believes the anticipated recovery will be postponed.

As a researcher, I’ve been analyzing Ali Charts and see their primary target price at $0.33. While hitting this target would be a solid 24.9% gain and a meaningful recovery for ADA, it’s important to note it still falls slightly below the key 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) currently at $0.3441. This means the overall daily trend would still be considered downward. To really signal a shift, we’d need to see a sustained move above that SMA. Their secondary target of $0.42 would achieve that, clearing the SMA by about $0.076 and marking the first time ADA has consistently closed above it since the recent decline began. That would be a much stronger indication of a potential trend reversal.

What the daily price chart confirms and complicates

Cardano (ADA) is currently trading at $0.2642, a slight decrease of 0.23% for the day. The moving averages are showing some improvement: both the 50-day and 100-day simple moving averages ($0.2527 and $0.2616 respectively) are now below the current price, indicating a positive short-term trend. However, the 200-day simple moving average remains significantly above the current price at $0.3441 – about 30% higher – and is still trending downward.

The price is currently just $0.0026 above the 100-day Simple Moving Average, with a very small buffer. If the price falls below $0.2616 today, it would drop back below this average, reversing recent gains and making the SuperTrend signal less reliable.

The price level of $0.2800, halfway to our $0.33 target, will be a key test of whether the recent price increase is a real recovery or just a temporary jump. If the price reaches $0.2800 without falling back down, it suggests the SuperTrend indicator is signaling a sustained upward trend, not just a brief bounce.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 52.99, compared to its signal line at 58.07 – a difference of 5.08 points. The signal line being above the RSI suggests that the recent upward momentum is weakening, although the RSI has bounced back from February’s low point. Currently, the RSI isn’t showing extreme buying or selling pressure. Whether the price goes up or down will likely depend on if it can consistently close above its current moving average.

Ali Charts sees a key price level at $0.25 as the lowest point where his optimistic outlook remains valid. This level is only $0.0142 below the current price, meaning the difference between a price recovery happening soon versus being delayed isn’t very large – often smaller than the typical daily price fluctuations we’ve seen this month. This isn’t just a hypothetical level; a single day with a significant price drop could easily reach it.

Why the accumulation structure matters more than the signal’s near-term targets

As an analyst, I’m seeing a potentially bullish setup with the SuperTrend indicator flashing a buy signal and a primary target around $0.33 for the next few weeks. However, what’s really significant isn’t just the signal itself, but the long-term accumulation we’ve observed. Over the past eighteen months, we’ve reached a supply concentration level last seen in July 2020. What this means is that a remarkable 67.47% of all ADA currently circulating is held by addresses that weathered a 71% drop in market capitalization *without* selling. This strong, long-term ownership is the real foundation of this potential rally, and honestly, I’m less focused on hitting the short-term targets and more concerned with whether we can maintain support around the $0.25 level.

If the price stays above $0.2800 each day, and the moving average starts to rise while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) moves above 58.07, it will confirm that the recent buy signal is strong. This would suggest the price could continue to climb towards a target of $0.33.

If the price drops below $0.2527 and stays there, breaking below its 50-day simple moving average, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) falls under 45, it suggests the recent positive signal isn’t holding up. This would mean the price recovery is losing steam, likely returning to its previous trading range. This could quickly bring the price down to around $0.25, effectively negating the recent upward move.

This article is for informational purposes only and shouldn’t be taken as financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com doesn’t support or suggest any particular investment or cryptocurrency. Before making any investment choices, be sure to do your own research and talk to a qualified financial advisor.

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2026-05-14 14:23