BTC’s Desperate Dance at $70K: Will It Break or Bounce?

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Glassnode reports BTC demand exhaustion near $70K as Willy Woo says Bitcoin bear market remains in Phase 1.

The Bitcoin market, once a vibrant beast, now wheezes under the weight of its own ambition. Analysts squint at volatility, liquidity, and demand trends like a drunk man staring at a map, hoping to find salvation in numbers.

New reports whisper that the bear market is still in its infancy, while on-chain metrics suggest demand is crumbling like a poorly baked soufflé near critical price levels. One might call it poetic justice.

Bitcoin Bear Market Seen in Early Phase

On-chain analyst Willy Woo, a prophet with a keyboard, declares Bitcoin remains in “Phase 1” of its bear market odyssey. Volatility, he claims, is the harbinger of doom-rising like a specter to confirm the inevitable.

Volatility, according to Woo, is the market’s way of saying, “I’m fine, really.” He insists it’s a core trend signal for quants, a fact as useful as a screen door on a submarine. Yet here we are, watching it climb like a drunkard’s staircase.

I find it useful to frame BTC bear markets in 3 phases:

Phase 1 – The start, where BTC liquidity has already broken down (this happened Q3 2025) and price begins to follow downwards. BTC is a small asset so it’s hyper sensitive to liquidity. Because of this, it tends to lead…

– Willy Woo (@willywoo)

Woo, ever the optimist, adds that volatility peaks often appear during the cycle’s climax or its awkward middle school phase. Smaller peaks, he claims, align with market capitulation-a term as comforting as a broken promise.

He also dabbles in internal liquidity and investor flow models, claiming they harmonize with volatility readings. Three phases, he insists, are the answer to all our questions. Phase 1, he says, began in Q3 2025 when liquidity conditions dissolved like sugar in tea.

Phase 2 and Broader Market Risk

Phase 2, according to Woo, may arrive when global equities turn bearish-a slow, bureaucratic process akin to convincing a cat to take a bath. Bitcoin, he argues, reacts faster because it’s smaller and more sensitive to capital flows, or as he puts it, “hyper-sensitive to liquidity.”

Phase 3, the grand finale, will begin when liquidity stabilizes and capital outflows peak. Final capitulation, he predicts, will occur during this stage-like a drunken tango between hope and despair.

When asked about his 2021 forecast of $200k-$300k for BTC, Woo chuckled, “Derivatives markets have made fools of us all.” He now admits broader models require expansion beyond on-chain data, a lesson learned after tripping over his own hubris.

Related Reading: For those who still believe in golden rays of hope, here’s Peter Brandt’s BTC bounce theory.

Glassnode Flags BTC Demand Exhaustion Near $70K

Glassnode, the blockchain oracle, reports demand exhaustion near $70K. Every attempt since February to reclaim that price has been met with resistance, as if the market itself is rolling its eyes.

Since early February, every attempt to reclaim $70k has met demand exhaustion, with even >$5M/hour in net realized profit triggering rejection.Contrast that with Q3 2025’s euphoric phase, when profit realization surged to $200-350M/hour.Ongoing regime of thin liquidity makes a…

– glassnode (@glassnode)

Glassnode contrasts current activity with Q3 2025’s euphoric days, when profits flowed like champagne at a royal wedding. Now, liquidity is thinner than a poorly written business plan. Sustained movement into $70K-$80K? A fantasy, they say.

Their data suggests buyer strength is weaker than a toddler’s resolve at bedtime. Combined with volatility and thin liquidity, the market remains a pressure cooker of stress. Participants watch demand metrics like vultures circling a carcass, waiting for stabilization.

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2026-02-20 11:12