Bitcoin’s Risk-Off Signals Spark Fire – Traders Think Sub-$100K BTC is a Bargain 😏

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Ah, Bitcoin (BTC), that resilient creature, bravely standing above $90,000. However, despite its attempts to put on a brave face, the data suggests it’s actually flashing a big “risk-off” signal. CryptoQuant’s multi-metric risk-off oscillator is stubbornly lingering near the dreaded “High-Risk” zone, which, as history so kindly reminds us, is often a precursor to corrections and a nail in the coffin for any hopes of a sustained bullish trend. 🙄

Key takeaways:

  • Bitcoin’s “risk-off” signal is hanging out near “High-Risk” territory, which, in case you forgot, usually signals a bearish time ahead.

  • The Profit-Loss sentiment has plummeted to a rare -3, which could indicate that the correction is already knocking on the door.

  • With a -32% drawdown, Bitcoin is now wedged between a correction and capitulation zone, hinting at a potentially prolonged decline between $90,000 and $80,000. Guess we’re in for a wild ride, huh?

Bitcoin is structurally weak near $90,000

CryptoQuant’s Risk-Off model – which is a complex concoction of six metrics, including downside volatility, exchange inflows, and market cap behavior – indicates the market is fragile. The oscillator is hanging around 60, which, my dear friends, means correction risks are higher than a cat on a hot tin roof.

Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. has a few choice words as well, noting that the profit/loss score has dropped to -3. This, dear reader, is the kind of extreme concentration of unprofitable UTXOs that historically heralds bearish phases and prolonged cooling off periods. What’s even better is that this current -32% drawdown exceeds your usual cycle pullbacks (around -20 to -25%) but is still far from reaching the dreaded capitulation levels of -50% to -70%. So, welcome to the “intermediate zone” where things are decidedly uncomfortable.

Adler, ever the optimist, suggests that until macroeconomic conditions and onchain profitability improve, the probability of further downside remains high. So much for stability near $90,000, eh? 😬

Now, onchain data from Glassnode did throw us a tiny bone, noting that Bitcoin’s recent drawdown triggered the largest spike in realized losses since the FTX collapse in 2022. Of course, this was mainly driven by short-term holders (STHs), but long-term holder (LTH) losses have been relatively tame, suggesting they’re made of sturdier stuff. This could cushion any deeper capitulation, though don’t get too comfortable just yet. 🍿

$100,000 Bitcoin is a Battle Between Momentum and Trend

One CryptoQuant analyst kindly described Bitcoin’s approach to $100,000 as a “psychological turning point.” Ooh, the drama! While a breakout might spark some renewed momentum (possibly aided by a Federal Reserve interest rate cut on Dec. 10), we all know major round numbers have a habit of causing volatility and, occasionally, making fools out of us with failed attempts.

The growth rate difference between Market Cap and Realized Cap remains at -0.00095, suggesting that the market cap is shrinking faster than the realized cap. With BTC hovering at $91,000, the analyst’s conclusion seems rather grim – structural weakness appears to be the star of the show, not trend expansion. 💀

And, as if we needed more drama, Bitcoin futures trader, Byzantine General, weighed in with this tidbit:

“$BTC is struggling a bit here at this key resistance level. If it breaks through, it could fly over 100,000 very quickly, but if it actually rejects here, then we’re probably stuck in this 92,000-82,000 range for a while.”

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2025-12-06 00:08