Bitcoin’s Next Move: Is There Still Room to Run?

by

Markets

What to know:

  • The 200-week moving average (200-WMA), bitcoin’s most dependable old curiosity, has just breached $53,000, while the realized price has climbed above it at $54,000. A neat little shift, like a candle flickering in a hallway.
  • In past cycles, as long as the realized price stays above the 200-WMA, bitcoin has tended to push higher.

Many investors are presently treating bitcoin as if the final act of a long play were approaching; they speak of Q4 as if it might close the curtain on the current market drama. Yet two modest metrics suggest the bull may be only warming up backstage. 🤔

Glassnode data shows that the 200-week moving average (200WMA), which smooths bitcoin’s price over a long arc and seldom frowns, has just breached $53,000.

Meanwhile, the realized price, the average price at which all bitcoin in circulation last moved on-chain, has just risen above the 200-WMA at $54,000. A little triumph for a market that loves a parade. 😂

Looking back at previous cycles, a pattern reveals itself with the patience of a landlady counting rent. In bull markets, the realized price tends to stay above the 200-WMA, while in bear markets, the opposite occurs.

For example, in the 2017 and 2021 bull markets, the realized price steadily climbed higher and widened its gap above the 200-WMA, before eventually collapsing below it and signaling the start of the bear markets. A dramatic turn, like a letter that never arrives.

While, during the downturn of 2022, the realized price fell below the 200-WMA, it has only recently moved above it. Historically, once the realized price remains above this long-term moving average, bitcoin has tended to push higher as the bull market progresses. So perhaps the stage is not bare of laughter or tears yet. 🎭

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2025-10-04 21:34