Bitcoin’s Mid-Cycle Pause? Or the Bear Market’s Sneaky Entrance?

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In the grand salon of finance, where fortunes rise and fall with the caprice of a summer breeze, Bitcoin has lately adopted the air of a weary aristocrat, its once-gilded coat dulled by the relentless clatter of sellers. Since October, when the coin scaled the dizzying heights of $125,000-a peak so lofty it might have left even the most intrepid bulls gasping-it has tumbled toward the modest $60,000 region, a descent so swift one might imagine the market’s optimism had been spirited away by a mischievous wind. Now, as whispers of a bear market swirl like autumn leaves, the question lingers: Is this merely a pause in the waltz, or the prelude to a prolonged winter?

Axel Adler, that indefatigable chronicler of blockchain ballet, suggests the on-chain data lean toward the latter. His Entity-Adjusted Liveliness metric, a barometer of long-term holder vigor, peaked in December 2025 with a flourish, only to begin its descent like a ballerina fatigued by too many pirouettes. Such lags, Adler notes, are not uncommon-though one might wonder if the coin’s dancers are simply out of breath or merely bored with the routine. The downward trend, he insists, hints at a shift from distribution to accumulation, a transition as inevitable as the turning of seasons.

History, that fickle oracle, offers parallels. Accumulation phases have stretched from 1.1 to 2.5 years, a duration that would test the patience of even the most stoic investor. If the pattern holds, the current market may be nursing a hangover after the late-cycle revelry, not a mere hiccup. Investors, ever the anxious courtiers, now scrutinize price action and on-chain signals with the fervor of soothsayers, hoping to divine whether stability lies ahead-or a deeper abyss.

Liveliness Reversal Signals Potential Shift Toward Long-Term Accumulation

Adler, with the precision of a horologist, observes that liveliness peaked shortly after Bitcoin’s zenith, a lag as natural as the delay between thunder and lightning. The metric’s descent since mid-February 2026, now languishing below its moving averages, suggests long-term holders have grown sedentary, their spending activity as lively as a drowsy cat in a sunbeam. One might almost pity them, had one not already pocketed profits from their earlier exuberance.

Previous cycles, those tedious repetitions of history, offer little comfort. The 2020 accumulation phase lasted 1.1 years; the 2022-2024 affair dragged on for 2.5. Should this trend persist, investors may find themselves counting the days until late 2026 or beyond, a timeline that would test the resolve of even the most zealous HODLers. Confirmation, Adler warns, will require the 90-day average to roll decisively below the 365-day trend-a signal as unambiguous as a monarch’s decree.

Bitcoin Weekly Structure Shows Persistent Downtrend Pressure

On the weekly chart, Bitcoin’s descent reads like a Shakespearean tragedy. The coin, once a sprightly youth, now clings to the $67,000 zone with the desperation of a character in a gothic novel. The breakdown below medium-term moving averages-a support line that once shielded it from despair-has left the market exposed, its momentum as feeble as a candle in a gale. Repeated failures to reclaim the $90,000-$100,000 region suggest the bearish regime is no interlude but a permanent guest.

The green mid-cycle moving average, once a lifeline, now lies trampled beneath the weight of reality. Bitcoin trades well below it, while the red long-term average near $50,000 looms as a grim milestone. Sustained trading beneath such lines, history reminds us, often precedes corrections so brutal they make one question the wisdom of owning anything at all.

Volume dynamics, too, whisper caution. The recent selloff was marked by a spike that suggested panic, not prudence-a frenzied auction rather than a measured exit. Yet subsequent moderation hints at a temporary reprieve, as if the market has caught its breath… only to realize it still owes money to the bears.

Should Bitcoin stabilize above $60,000, a range-bound existence might yet be possible. But a decisive plunge below that threshold would likely summon the specter of deeper losses, a descent into the abyss of cost-basis supports. Conversely, a return to $80,000-$90,000 might yet stir hope-though hope, in this market, is a currency more volatile than Bitcoin itself.

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2026-02-18 08:22