Key Takeaways
Is Bitcoin still climbing the ladder or has it already fallen flat?
Perhaps. Cycle models suggest BTC might soar to somewhere between $143K and $146K-if re-accumulation keeps up its charm, of course. Because nothing screams stability like a rollercoaster ride with digital gold.
Why are traders betting against the house while Bitcoin’s supply plays hide and seek?
Despite the frantic shorting in Futures, Long-Term Holders (LTHs) are still hoarding. They’re draining BTC like a bad cafe espresso, pulling coins off exchanges-just waiting for that sweet, sweet squeeze. Call it the crypto version of hide-and-seek, with profits on the line.
Bitcoin [BTC] is throwing a party with mixed signals-one foot on the gas, the other on the brake.
Traders are throwing bets against it, with Open Interest (OI) ballooning 30% and Funding Rates making a deep dive into negative territory. Yet, LTHs remain unbothered, almost amused.
Since January, BTC’s supply on exchanges and OTC desks has shrunk from 4.5 million to 3.1 million-almost a magic trick. Still hitting new highs, people are buying like there’s no tomorrow, and some analysts whisper about a possible $143K-$146K finish line this cycle. 🍿
Leverage Madness-The Short Squeeze Waiting to Happen?
Over the last week, Binance’s OI shot up over 30%, making traders look like they’ve rediscovered their youth-reckless and energetic. Simultaneously, Funding Rates turned negative, and that little voice in your head whispers, “Shorts, anyone?”
Basically, folks are betting everything on the market’s imminent downfall. But when bearish bets pile up like old furniture in a hoarder’s basement, guess what? The inevitable short squeeze tends to crash the party and leave the bears scrambling for their hats.
And then-surprise! They have to buy back in, cursing their bad luck.
Supply-As Rare as a Solar Eclipse
Bitcoin’s inventory from exchanges and OTC desks is evaporating faster than a snowman in July: from 4.5 million down to 3.1 million coins since January. Talk about a disappearing act! 🚀
The big shift is undeniable.
Miners aren’t selling, and loyal LTHs aren’t in a rush to cash out. Unlike past cycles, where profits were practically begging to be taken, this time BTC is freezing into cold storage, perhaps contemplating the true meaning of “bank vault.”
Where’s the Peak? The Great Bitcoin Question
Joao Wedson, the wise CEO of Alphractal, argues that Bitcoin’s current antics still fit within its long-term cycle-and no, that’s not just crypto jargon for “wait and see”.
If BTC is in a re-accumulation phase, Wedson dares to project that the cycle’s peak might be somewhere between $143,700 and $146,300. Because, evidently, history has one or two tricks up its sleeve.
But if recent highs around $126K were just a fancy way to distribute wealth to early traders, then the top might be already reached-though Wedson adds with a cheeky grin,
“The data isn’t acting like we’ve topped…”
Thus, the future remains a delightful mystery, with the market’s next move promising more surprises than a magician’s hat. Stay tuned-this is one show you don’t want to miss. 🎩💸
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2025-10-18 12:27