Markets
What to know:
- A bitcoin market bottom could be marching into town, maybe by next month, when measured against gold, reports the folks at Mercado Bitcoin.
- Historically, bitcoin bear markets have stretched for a year or so, hinting at a drop that might drag on until the late summer of 2026 if you’re looking at dollars.
- Global uncertainty, simmering tensions, and more money finding its way into gold have pulled BTC‘s tail girth when staring at gold.
Bitcoin’s snarky path to the bottom might show up next month, if the gold‑priced bitcoin price is any guide, says Rony Szuster, the head of research at Brazil’s biggest crypto exchange, Mercado Bitcoin. He’s trying to warn you before you buy the next borrowed property of a dollar’s dream.
When you look at dollars, the last time Bitcoin said “I’m high” was October 2025, hovering around $126,000. Stick to the old pattern, and the decline could march on until the last leaves of late 2026, he warned in a spooled report shared with CoinDesk.
But glance at the gold chart and the timeline shifts. Bitcoin hit its peak against gold in January 2025. If you apply the same twelve‑to‑thirteen‑month dance, a bottom could surface around February 2026, with a flicker of recovery possibly in March.
The split comes from bigger forces in the world. Since Donald Trump’s new reign began, markets have faced pounding tariffs, domestic squabbles, and beefier tensions with China and Iran. Those tensions have now turned into a full‑blown military simmering pot.
The global uncertainty – measured by the World Uncertainty Index – has exploded. Gold fed off that surge, climbing more than 80% over the last year to $5,280. As people moved their coins into gold, bitcoin slipped against it faster than a runaway mule, the analyst wrote.
ETFs have added a squeeze. Since November, a hefty $7.8 billion has washed out of spot bitcoin ETFs, about 12% of the total $61.6 billion, making the game feel a bit wobbly.
That fear‑driven din paints only half the picture. While pull‑students roam away from bitcoin, the sizable investors – the whales – view the slump as a chance to buy in bulk; the report points out that Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala Investment Company and Al Warda Investments dipped into spot bitcoin ETF exposure in mid‑February.
Against that backdrop, Szuster urges investors to size up their positions wisely and adopt a dollar‑cost averaging shuffle to ride the fear wave without timing the tide. “Historically, buying when the panic hits has been the better play,” he mused. “Does this mean it’s already the bottom? No. But statistically, it’s the zone where best averages usually hide.”
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2026-03-01 18:10