Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle: Why 2026 Will Be a Sleepy Snorefest

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Markets

What to Know (Unless You Enjoy Naps):

  • Some fancy-pants analysts have been tossing the idea of bitcoin’s four-year cycle into the trash like yesterday’s tuna sandwich. 🥪
  • But Jurrien Timmer from Fidelity, who clearly hasn’t lost his crayons, says the current action is lining up perfectly with past cycles. Spoiler: Expect a snooze-fest until 2026. 🛌

Lately, it’s become trendy to scoff at bitcoin’s four-year cycle and its predictable rollercoaster of boom and bust. 🤷‍♂️ But let’s be honest, fashionable people are often wrong. Just look at Crocs.

Last week, Matt Hougan from Bitwise and Cathie Wood from ARK Invest decided to sprinkle their fairy dust on the idea, claiming bitcoin is now part of the “grown-up” financial system. Bitcoin, they say, is no longer the rebel teenager it used to be. But is it really? 🧐

What’s This Cycle Everyone’s Babbling About?

The four-year cycle is tied to bitcoin’s halving events, which happen roughly every four years. These halvings slash mining rewards by 50%, causing a supply shock and sending prices sky-high. 🚀 Then, like clockwork, the inevitable crash comes, wiping out 80% of gains before the slow climb begins anew.

Chart enthusiasts (read: people with too much time on their hands) love pointing to the bull runs and crashes after the 2012, 2016, and 2020 halvings. They insist history is repeating itself in 2024, with prices peaking above $125,000 in October 2025 before tumbling into bear territory. 📉

Timmer’s Take: Bring a Blanket for 2026

Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity’s director of global macro and one of the few Wall Street types who didn’t laugh at bitcoin back in the day, says his charts show the four-year cycle is alive and kicking. 🦵

“If we visually line up all the bull markets, the October high of $125,000 after 145 weeks of rallying fits pretty well with what one might expect,” Timmer mused earlier this week. As for what’s next? Winter. And not the fun, snowball-fight kind. He predicts the bear market will last about a year, making 2026 a “year off” for bitcoin. Support? Somewhere between $65,000 and $75,000. 🐻

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2025-12-20 18:14