Bitcoin’s Droll Descent and the Bear’s Banter

by

Crypto markets performed another merciless pas de deux, a wry cavorting with fate that would make a fussy maestro giggle and then sigh. Bitcoin flirted with the modest brink of 74,000, only to pirouette above 76,800, as if the currency itself were auditioning for a role in a tragedy with a comic ending. Over the past week the beast has slipped about 13 percent, a stat that wears a smirk and a funeral veil at once.

Market data, those gossiping runes of the financial parlor, now suggest a deeper bear rather than a mere misstep and a cycle bottom that lounges even lower than the latest chorus had promised.

Deeper Cycle Lows

The prominent conjurer of charts, Doctor Profit, has trimmed his forecasts like a tailor snipping the hem of a fevered dream, setting the cycle’s nadir between 54,000 and 44,000 dollars. He explains that the recent decline coincided with a technical rite of passage-the death of the 100-week moving average (MA100 Weekly)-a signpost that divides the land of bulls from the dominions of bears. He reminds us that Bitcoin’s ascent above this very line in October 2023 presided over the last bull market; to fall away from it again, two years hence, aligns with the grander market cycle and hints at an invitation to a bear’s ball.

He also cites the emergence of a death cross as further confirmation, describing it like a cynical nod from fate, eerily reminiscent of the market architecture seen during the 2021-2022 peak and its subsequent slide. He remarks that the move below MA100 Weekly was both swift and decisive, a clean breakdown from a bearish flag pattern he has been citing with the persistence of a customs officer totaling the passengers on a whimsically crowded train.

Looking forward, the analyst expects Bitcoin to close the coming week below the MA100 Weekly, enter another small, polite consolidation, and then drift toward a 70,000 target-though he insists this is not the cycle bottom. While once he imagined a bottom in the 50,000-60,000 range-an audacious forecast aired when Bitcoin wandered between 115,000 and 125,000-new models, he concedes, point to even lower realms.

From his recalculations, the new bottom zone sits between 54,000 and 44,000, a corridor he calls the most likely lair for the true cycle low. He also flags Bitcoin’s dip below Strategy’s average entry price around 76,000 as another knot in the rope of risk, arguing that this could inflame fear and panic in the market like a melodrama with too many candles on the cake.

A significant portion of Strategy’s treasure was amassed with leverage, and the firm’s stock-used as collateral-has sagged. This has made stabilization more arduous with BTC trading beneath the cost basis. Doctor Profit further adds that Strategy’s overall Bitcoin position is now roughly flat on a profit-and-loss ledger, while noting in a conspiratorial whisper that no profits have been plucked from the tree thus far.

He even warns that the market’s fear might be nourished by external whispers, including speculation tied to Epstein-related releases, which he says may fuel emotional selling regardless of their veracity. A kind of cynical popcorn-flavored drama, if you will.

BTC May Need a New Narrative

In a companion chorus, Matrixport’s latest market update casts a pall over traditional finance’s appetite for spot Bitcoin ETFs. The report says Bitcoin ETFs have endured three consecutive months of net outflows, even as many U.S. wealth managers have only just allowed client forays into these products.

The last meaningful inflows occurred in July, with a brief October flirtation, but momentum has waned since the summer. This lull persists even as gold pirouettes skyward and the broader de-dollarization theme unfurls its banners. The firm concludes that BTC may require a fresh or rejuvenated narrative before a durable bottom coaxes itself into the room and renewed interest from traditional investors dares to arrive with a respectable entourage.

Read More

2026-02-02 12:15