Bitcoin’s Desperate Descent: Can It Avoid the $58K “Larry David Special”?

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Bitcoin’s recent nosedive is making everyone question if we’re at the bottom-or just the first step in a deeper, more humiliating pit. Either way, it’s a party no one wanted.

Galaxy Digital’s Alex Thorn, ever the optimist, says Bitcoin’s about to “drift lower” toward $70,000. That’s not a prediction-that’s a dare. And then, for fun, he throws in the 200-week MA at $58,000. Why not? It’s a number so silly, even a broken calculator would laugh.

Galaxy Warns Bitcoin Might Drift Toward $58K-Like a Rock in a River of Tears

In a research note that could double as a self-help guide for pessimists, Thorn told clients to expect Bitcoin to “drift” (read: plummet) toward those “long-term support levels.” Spoiler: No one trusts support levels anymore. They’re just fancy placeholders for panic.

“Historically, those levels have been strong entry points,” Thorn wrote. Yeah, like buying a boat during a hurricane. Classic advice.

Between January 28 and 31, Bitcoin lost 15% of its value. On Saturday alone, $2 billion in longs got liquidated. That’s not a correction-that’s a family reunion where everyone brings bad news.

Prices hit $75,644 on Coinbase-nearly 10% below the ETFs’ average cost basis. That’s like showing up to a buffet and realizing you forgot your appetite.

BTC also dipped below Strategy’s $76K buy-in. Meanwhile, the April 2025 “Tariff Tantrum” low is now a destination, not a warning. Congrats to everyone who’s underwater now. You’re in good company.

Thorn noted 46% of Bitcoin’s supply is held at a loss. That’s not a bear market-it’s a bear in a suit, sipping coffee and judging your life choices.

On-chain data shows a “thin ownership zone” between $70K and $80K. Translation: No one’s holding here, so it’s free real estate for the inevitable collapse. Demand? What demand?

“Macro uncertainty and a lack of catalysts suggest BTC will trade lower,” Thorn added. Of course. Because what Bitcoin really needs is more uncertainty and fewer reasons to exist.

The realized price of $56K and 200-week MA at $58K are now “historical convergence points.” Great. So it’s not just a bottom-it’s a bottom that’s been retrofitted with nostalgia.

Bitcoin Loses Its Mojo as Gold Shines-Who Needs a Hedge, Anyway?

Bitcoin’s failed to rally with gold and silver. That’s like showing up to a party in pajamas and expecting everyone to pretend you’re dressed for dinner. Thorn called this divergence “a problem for the narrative.” Yes, Larry. The narrative is dead. Kill it again.

Still, some cling to hope. Whale accumulation is muted, but long-term holder selling has “abated.” That’s code for: “We’re not selling as fast as we did yesterday. Progress!”

Bull Theory pointed to 2020, when gold topped and Bitcoin followed. But in 2020, Bitcoin crashed 20% after gold fell. That’s not a rotation-it’s a group project in failure.

DOES MONEY ACTUALLY ROTATES FROM GOLD INTO BITCOIN ONCE GOLD TOPS?

Yes, this has happened before.

In August 2020, Gold topped at $2,075 and dropped nearly 10% in the next 4 weeks. Bitcoin also followed Gold and crashed nearly 20% from $12,000 to $9,800.

This move scared…

– Bull Theory (@BullTheoryio) February 2, 2026

With the ISM index above 50, gold pulling back, and Bitcoin still limping, maybe we’ll see a rotation into “risk-on assets.” By which they mean: assets that aren’t Bitcoin. Optimism is a dangerous game.

Galaxy Digital says if Bitcoin hits $58K, it could be a “safety net.” That’s not a net-that’s a trampoline. You’ll fall through, but at least it’ll be fun.

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2026-02-03 11:13