Bitcoin’s Big Wait: Will It Recover? (Spoiler: Probably Not)

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Bitcoin’s recovery during a period of extreme market fear could carry significant meaning for investors who hesitate to reallocate capital. However, by the final week of February, Bitcoin’s price had not shown clear positive signals.

Some historical data suggests how long negative sentiment may persist. Probably longer than your ex’s grudge.

The Next Six Months Could Test Investor Patience

According to Glassnode, the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio (90D-SMA) provides an important signal for assessing market conditions. Or, as the rest of us call it, “the financial equivalent of a tantrum.”

Realized Profit represents the total USD value of all coins moved on-chain at a price higher than their acquisition cost. Realized Loss represents the total USD value of all coins moved at a price lower than their acquisition cost. Which is basically the crypto world’s version of “I’m not mad, I’m just disappointed.”

Glassnode applies a 90-day moving average to smooth daily volatility. This method helps identify the dominant market trend over the past three months. Or, as the rest of us call it, “a cosmic clock that’s clearly been drinking.”

When the ratio stays above 1.0, profits dominate. The market operates in a net profit state, and investors primarily sell to lock in gains. When the ratio falls below 1.0, losses dominate. Most participants who move coins realize losses, often through capitulation. This condition typically appears during bear markets. Which, let’s be honest, is Bitcoin’s default setting.

Current data shows that the ratio dropped below 1 in February for the first time since 2022. Historically, periods below 1 have lasted around six months. Because nothing says “excitement” like a six-month wait for a market that’s as reliable as a drunken seagull on a unicycle.

“The Realized Profit/Loss Ratio (90D-SMA) has now fallen below 1, confirming a full transition into an excess loss-realization regime. Historically, breaks below 1 have persisted for 6+ months before reclaiming it, a recovery that typically signals a constructive return of liquidity to the market,” Glassnode reported.

Bear market cycles in 2015, 2018, and 2022 followed this six-month pattern. This history suggests that Bitcoin could enter a prolonged downturn or remain stagnant at low levels until the end of Q3 this year. Or, as the rest of us call it, “the crypto equivalent of a never-ending soap opera.”

Or Possibly Just One More Month

Monthly performance data offers a different perspective. Like a broken clock that’s right twice a day.

February could mark the fifth consecutive negative month for Bitcoin. Historically, the longest losing streak lasted 6 months before the market reversed sharply. Because nothing says “hope” like a 6-month wait for a market that’s as predictable as a politician’s promises.

“There are no guarantees in markets. But periods of extreme fear often appear near major turning points. History shows that people who bought during red months often make the most money when the market starts to recover,” investor Gayu_BTC said.

This reasoning suggests that Bitcoin could recover as early as April. That timeline would arrive much sooner than the projection implied by Glassnode’s analysis. Or, as the rest of us call it, “a miracle.”

If time factors are set aside and the focus shifts to drawdown magnitude, statistics indicate potential opportunities for buyers at lower levels. Because nothing says “investment” like buying when the market’s at its lowest point, just to watch it plummet further.

“Bitcoin is down 47% from ATH. Historically, buying at -50% drawdown has a 90% win rate over 1 year with a median return of +95%. At -70%, the win rate is 100%. Never lost. Worst outcome was still +25%,” the account stated.

Meanwhile, the latest analysis from BeInCrypto emphasizes the importance of the $60,000 level. Analysts view this price as a critical boundary that could help determine Bitcoin’s trend in the coming months. Or, as the rest of us call it, “a magical number that’s been pulled out of thin air like a rabbit from a hat.”

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2026-02-24 13:16