Bitcoin vs. Gold: A Comedy of Errors and Returns 🤑💰

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Imagine, if you will, a world where digital tokens and shiny rocks are the new kings of investment. Jurrien Timmer, the sage Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Investments, isn’t surprised one bit. According to him, Bitcoin’s continued perch atop the global returns leaderboard, alongside the venerable gold and international equities, is as natural as a cat chasing a laser pointer. Meanwhile, bonds are still moping around at the bottom, like a teenager who missed the prom.

In his latest market note, Timmer suggests that Bitcoin’s allure lies in its scarcity narrative, which plays beautifully in a world where fiat currencies are about as stable as a toddler on a trampoline. With the U.S. fiscal dominance pushing more capital into domestic risk assets, it’s no wonder Bitcoin is the belle of the ball. But don’t count out gold just yet-this old-timer has managed to outpace Bitcoin in 2025, much to the chagrin of crypto enthusiasts everywhere.

Back in January, Timmer hinted that gold might eventually “pass the baton” to Bitcoin, a prediction that seemed almost prophetic when Bitcoin hit a new all-time high in late August. Alas, the momentum was short-lived, and Bitcoin stumbled like a drunk at closing time. In contrast, gold has been on a tear, soaring above $3,650 this week and setting another record as investors bet on potential rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. It’s like watching a slow-motion race between a hare and a tortoise, except the tortoise is winning.

Timmer’s previous musings suggested that quantitative easing (QE) could make a comeback as the Fed grapples with structural fiscal pressure. If that happens, both Bitcoin and gold stand to benefit, much like how a rainstorm benefits both flowers and weeds.

Cycles and Institutional Gravity

Timmer also chimed in on the debate over whether Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle still holds water in a market now dominated by institutional players. Despite the changing dynamics, he believes Bitcoin is still dancing to the same tune, thanks to its supply mechanics and favorable macro conditions. In July, he described Bitcoin and gold as being in the “middle innings” of the hard money trade, driven by an expanding global money supply and the ever-present U.S. dollar.

Fidelity’s view of Bitcoin as hard money isn’t just a catchy phrase; it represents a significant shift in macroeconomic strategies. If QE returns, Bitcoin’s role won’t just mirror gold’s-it could become the star of the show. So, buckle up, folks, because the ride is just getting started. 🚀💸

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2025-09-10 00:51