Bitcoin Targets $96K-$99K Recovery as Indices Signal Reversal

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Ah, the sweet, sweet volatility of Bitcoin. As of November 25, our beloved BTC is hanging around $87,000. The ominous bearish cloud that’s been looming over us for the past month might just be nearing a turning point. Can you feel the suspense? Analysts, in all their wisdom, are eyeing a recovery window between $96,000 and $99,000. Weak hands are fleeing, and liquidity, not yet another over-hyped narrative, is set to take the wheel.

Indices Point to Bear Fatigue as Price Lags Fair Value

On-chain researcher Axel Adler Jr. had a bit of a revelation on Tuesday: the Bitcoin Bull-Bear Structure Index has been marooned in negative territory since November 11. Of course, this indicates relentless selling pressure, as if we didn’t already know that. But wait, there’s more! A short-term reversal appears to be in motion. The metric, once languishing at a ghastly -43%, has improved to a rather more tolerable -20%. Could this be the first sign of the bear’s long-awaited retreat? Dare we hope?

But don’t pop the champagne just yet. The Bitcoin Futures Flow Index is still stuck in the mud at 41, well below the sweet spot of 45-55 that our friend Adler associates with a neutral or bullish backdrop. Until that magic number is crossed, don’t hold your breath for an upward surge. The market’s playing hard to get.

Meanwhile, the fair-value line is currently at $99,000, leaving a gaping $11,000 gap between it and spot prices. If sentiment plays nice, we could see a recovery target in the $96,000 to $99,000 range. But then again, this is Bitcoin. Anything can happen.

Adding some fuel to the fire, Daan Crypto Trades pointed out that the Coinbase premium-once a deeply negative, sad little number-moved back toward neutral over the weekend after a heavy bout of selling hit a local bottom. Could it be that pressure is finally easing? Dare we dream of a bullish future?

Of course, the short-term structure remains as fragile as a paper cup in a thunderstorm. Titan of Crypto has marked $88,700 as the first level the bulls need to reclaim. And let’s not forget Ed_NL’s ominous “red box” resistance zone at $93,500, which could either mark the end of this bounce (before we sink to new lows) or form the base for a glorious fifth wave higher. Only time will tell, and we’ll all be watching, popcorn in hand.

Recent Price Movement

So where are we now? Bitcoin has, in the grand tradition of cryptocurrency, made a modest 1% gain in the last 24 hours. But let’s not get too excited-it’s still in the red across all other timeframes. Over the past seven days, it’s dipped nearly 5%, and in the past fortnight, a tragic 18%. And if that wasn’t depressing enough, Bitcoin has lost 23% of its value this month and sits around 30% below its glorious all-time high of over $126,000, reached in October. Ah, the fickleness of fortune!

As usual, the downturn has been marked by what experts like to call “institutional redistribution.” Translation: the big whales, those holding 1,000 to 10,000+ BTC, have been busy selling off their prized possessions and taking profits. Not exactly conducive to a rally, is it? Meanwhile, the mid-sized whales, those holding between 10 and 1,000 BTC, have been quietly accumulating, as shown by a 0.47% increase in the number of wallets holding 100 BTC or more since November 11. So, at least someone is optimistic. Small comfort, but comfort nonetheless.

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2025-11-25 21:48