The Bitcoin Positioning Index increased to 40.1, and its 30-day average rose to 4.5 – the highest it’s been in four months. Open interest also jumped by 14.5%, marking one of the largest increases in the last 120 days.
According to crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr.’s recent report, investors are increasingly taking on risk, continuing to invest with borrowed money. This suggests a growing appetite for potentially higher-reward, but also higher-risk, investments.
Aggressive Risk-On Shift
Over the past month, the Positioning Index – a combined measure of trader activity, open interest, funding rates, and exchange data – has repeatedly shown sudden, short-lived increases.
Even with daily fluctuations, the 30-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) consistently increased from 0.4 at the end of March to 4.5 currently. This consistent rise suggests the market is becoming more stable and moving beyond temporary shifts, establishing a more solid foundation.
In February, a key indicator called the SMA-30d fell to -10.9 when Bitcoin’s price dropped below $63,000. Since then, the indicator has recovered by over 15 points, signaling that market conditions are improving. This trend is also supported by a rise in open interest. The change in open interest over the last 30 days shows that overall investment in Bitcoin futures is increasing rapidly, confirming that this price increase isn’t just due to short covering, but is being driven by new money coming into the market.
Adler suggests that a strong signal appears when the 30-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is trending upwards and open interest (OI) is also increasing. If the SMA rises but OI falls, it usually means traders are closing out their positions. Currently, both indicators are moving in the same direction, suggesting new investments are being made. Over the past 30 days, open interest has increased on 23 days, showing a rise in leveraged trading.
This recent market activity is different from what we saw in January. Back then, the Positioning Index had a quick, temporary jump, but it didn’t last because it wasn’t backed up by trading volume. Now, however, we’re seeing both the smoothed trend and trading volume increase together, suggesting a more solid and sustained move.
Breakdown Signal
The analyst observed that the signal will likely weaken if the change in open interest over the past 30 days becomes negative – suggesting traders are closing positions – or if the 30-day simple moving average turns downward. As long as these conditions don’t appear, the data indicates that the market is still actively opening new positions in Bitcoin futures, boosted by better market positioning and increasing leverage.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin tapped an 11-week high after climbing above $78,000 on Wednesday.
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2026-04-23 01:27