Bitcoin Fresh Buyers Fight To Stay Above Water: Stabilization Or Capitulation?

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Ah, Bitcoin! This whimsical coin has tumbled below the grand psychological barrier of $90,000! Our brave bulls, those gallant knights of the crypto realm, are now desperately attempting to shield the sacred $88,000 threshold from a more profound correction. After an epoch of wild fluctuations in the land of cryptocurrencies, our dear BTC finds itself in a delicate predicament, akin to a tightrope walker above a pit of uncertainty, where sentiment can flit about like a butterfly on a spring day-especially with traders reacting to the capricious winds of macroeconomic vagaries and dwindling momentum.

Our astute analyst, Axel Adler, has pointed out that Bitcoin is valiantly testing one of its most crucial short-term “defense lines.” With his trusty Support and Resistance chart, he compares the spot price to the realized cost basis of various short-term holders (STH) cohorts, transforming these levels into dynamic fortifications against marauding market forces!

Behold! The data reveals that BTC is dancing around the cost basis of the two freshest buyer clans: STH 0D-1D, frolicking at approximately $89,800, and STH 1W-1M, proud residents near $90,000. In simpler parlance, these intrepid investors who recently graced the market are merely treading water, making this territory as sensitive as a cat’s whiskers!

Above our current heights, resistance appears stacked like a poorly constructed soufflé. The 1M-3M cohort lurks near $92,500, already submerged under the waves-oh, how they may sell into any faint rebounds! Meanwhile, the aggregated STH realized price, hovering around $99,300, looms overhead like a storm cloud, ready to unleash chaos.

STH MVRV Near a Statistical Extreme

Adler wisely adds that another delightful metric reinforcing this precarious setup is the Short-Term Holder MVRV (STH MVRV). It measures the ratio between Bitcoin’s market price and the cost basis of our short-term holders, as if measuring the pulse of a market on the brink of a fainting spell! When this MVRV dips below 1.0, it signals that our dear short-term holders are wrestling with unrealized losses, becoming increasingly susceptible to panic-driven selling. Oh, the drama!

According to our beloved Adler, the current STH MVRV languishes at 0.897, meaning short-term holders are decidedly underwater-like sailors tossed by a tempest! This metric teeters on the edge of its 155-day statistical range, where the Mean minus one standard deviation hovers close to 0.875. With only a paltry 2.5% left before we reach that statistical nadir, Bitcoin is entering a zone that historically aligns with market exhaustion and local bottom formation. Should we prepare for a grand finale?

Past observations, as wise as a sage, reveal that price stabilization often occurred when this metric brushed against or approached its lower band, as buyers rallied and selling pressure waned. Yet, alas, the market remains at a critical crossroads. A clean break below 0.875 would signal extreme oversold conditions, raising the specter of short-term holder capitulation. Oh, what a spectacle that would be!

Together, both charts paint a vivid tableau of the battlefield. The hallowed ground of $89.8K-$90K serves as the key defense zone for our fresh buyers, while $92.5K stands obstinately as resistance. With MVRV pressing toward a statistical extreme, Bitcoin approaches a moment of truth-a veritable make-or-break juncture between stabilization and deeper despair.

Bitcoin Bears Pressure Key Support Zones

Alas! Bitcoin (BTC) finds itself besieged by renewed downside pressure after failing to reclaim the illustrious $90,000 region, with the latest pullback nudging prices toward the gloomy $88,600 area. The 3-day chart depicts BTC slipping back into the lower recesses of its recent range, echoing a fragile market structure where rallies are met with skepticism, and buyers hesitate to leap into action.

From a trend perspective, BTC finds itself traipsing below its key moving averages, with the faster lines curling downward, acting as dynamic barriers to progress. The most notable obstacle lies around the $100,000-$105,000 zone, where broader trend indicators loom overhead, signaling that the market is still in recovery mode rather than a triumphant uptrend. Even the most valiant bounce attempts have struggled to maintain momentum, illustrating that demand has not returned with enough gusto to absorb the relentless selling pressure.

Yet, even amidst this turmoil, BTC clings tenaciously above the red long-term moving average, which continues to rise-a beacon representing the broader bull market foundation. This keeps the larger structure intact, but the price action suggests that our bullish champions must valiantly defend the $88,000-$90,000 area to prevent further catastrophe.

If BTC manages to stabilize and reclaim the fabled $90K, it could herald a push back into the mid-$90K range. However, should selling accelerate below the ominous $88K, the market risks revisiting much deeper support levels from the late-2025 consolidation. Oh, what a tale of fortunes lost and found!

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2026-01-22 09:16