Bitcoin’s price has recently gone up, grabbing attention, but its recent back-and-forth movement raises a key question: Is the increase in price from April losing momentum, or is it just pausing before continuing to rise?
Bitcoin (BTC) briefly rose above $78,000 last Friday – a level it hadn’t reached in over two months – but has since experienced some volatile trading. By Monday, it had fallen back to just above $76,000, likely due to increased concerns about global political events.
Why BTC’s Direction Hinges On Wednesday
According to market expert Sam Daodu, the Middle East is experiencing fast-changing events that are quickly impacting investor confidence and causing significant price swings in the cryptocurrency market.
Iran briefly reopened the Strait of Hormuz, but quickly closed it again. They also left peace negotiations in Islamabad. These actions contributed to a significant drop in price on Sunday, bringing it down to around $73,000.
All eyes are now on Wednesday, as the current ceasefire is set to end on April 22nd with no new agreement currently planned. According to Daodu, this makes Wednesday a critical day that will likely determine the future price of Bitcoin for the remainder of April.
He sees two likely scenarios. If the current ceasefire continues or new negotiations begin, he anticipates oil prices will decrease to around $90 a barrel.
Daodu believes Bitcoin could rise back to around $78,000. If lawmakers schedule a review of the CLARITY Act before the end of the month, he thinks reaching $80,000 by the end of April is possible.
However, if conflict restarts and oil prices rise above $100 per barrel, the market could face new challenges.
May Looks Stronger For Bitcoin
Bitcoin has managed to stay above $70,000 even during previous times of increased tension, but analyst Daodu believes this time could be different. He points out that a failed ceasefire combined with the breakdown of negotiations creates a unique and potentially negative situation, which could cause Bitcoin’s price to fall to around $65,000.
Despite current market uncertainties, Daodu believes the recent surge to $78,000 is slowing down. He doesn’t expect Bitcoin to reach those levels again before the end of April unless the current ceasefire continues.
Despite recent fluctuations, the long-term outlook for Bitcoin appears positive. Large Bitcoin holders have been actively buying, accumulating around 270,000 BTC in the last month – the most significant monthly increase since 2013. Simultaneously, the amount of Bitcoin held on exchanges has dropped to its lowest level in seven years.
These signals indicate that retail investors might be overreacting to news about ceasefires, while larger Bitcoin holders are taking advantage of the price swings to buy more.
Basically, Daodu believes the recent price increase in April was likely a temporary surge that’s now losing steam. However, he suggests the conditions for May could be more favorable than they’ve been for much of the year.
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2026-04-20 23:58