Bitcoin Bull Market on Hold: Capital Outflows Persist Despite $90K Chart Setup

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<a href="https://investment-policy.com/btc-usd/">Bitcoin</a> bull market call looks premature as capital keeps leaving, even with $90K chart setup in play

Recent data suggests money is continuing to flow out of the Bitcoin market. While Europe is trying a similar strategy to Michael Saylor’s (investing heavily in Bitcoin), it’s facing unique challenges that haven’t affected the US. At a recent blockchain conference, industry leaders spent more time discussing the potential of future quantum computing than focusing on immediate Bitcoin price increases. Therefore, despite hopes for a new Bitcoin bull market in April 2026, the outlook remains cautious.

Price action flatters a market that is still bleeding capital

As Bitcoin briefly surged past $76,000 on April 15th, I started seeing renewed excitement about a bull market. However, my research at Glassnode, using our ‘true market mean’ (TMM) metric – which essentially calculates the average cost basis of *active* Bitcoin holders by excluding lost or inactive coins – tells a different story. As of mid-April, our data showed Bitcoin had been trading below the average entry price for active investors for 75 days straight. This suggests the rally might not be as straightforward as some believe.

While the recent dip is significant, it’s too early to say if it marks the start of a major downturn. Looking at past instances where the market fell below its 200-week moving average, these periods have lasted anywhere from two days to almost a year. Previous bear markets, like those in 2018-2019 and 2022-2023, saw price drops of up to 57%. According to CryptoVizArt, 75 days is a short time to declare the bottom, as similar events took months to fully unfold. They advise close monitoring rather than assuming the worst is over. Currently, the 200-week moving average is around $78,000, and whether the market can climb back above that level will determine if this is just a temporary bounce or the start of a new upward trend.

Looking at the movement of money, the situation is quite telling. Researcher Axel Adler Jr. notes that throughout 2026, Bitcoin’s market capitalization growth has consistently been negative when compared to its realized capitalization – a trend spanning over 105 trading days so far. Furthermore, the realized capitalization has decreased by 3.2%, falling from around $1.12 trillion at the beginning of the year to approximately $1.08 trillion, indicating that more money has left Bitcoin than entered. While the 30-day change in realized capitalization has slightly improved from a low of -0.54% in early April to around -0.32%, it still shows a net outflow of funds.

Simply put, there isn’t enough new investment coming into the market to keep prices rising. The recent price increase isn’t due to new buyers, but rather a decrease in selling. Should you buy Bitcoin? Maybe soon.

The bulls still have a chart, and an on-chain tailwind

Despite recent price fluctuations, the optimistic outlook for Bitcoin remains valid. Technical analysts point to a recent breakout above $76,000, suggesting a potential price increase to around $89,050 – an 18% gain from its current value. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has also recovered, and if the price consistently stays above the $75,000 level, it could soon reach $80,000, potentially paving the way to $90,000.

Despite concerns about capital flows, Bitcoin network activity is showing strong signs of recovery. On April 5th, daily transactions reached approximately 765,000 – a 62% increase since the start of the year and the highest level in over a year and a half. Analyst CW8900 noted on X that this transaction volume is actually higher than when Bitcoin was trading at $120,000, suggesting a bullish market. Additionally, network fees have increased by about 4% in the last week, indicating a growing willingness to pay for transactions – a typical sign of renewed demand.

There’s a noticeable conflict right now. While trading activity and price charts suggest a positive outlook, indicators like market capitalization and total market momentum indicate that large-scale buyers haven’t entered the market yet. This situation isn’t unusual. Similar patterns in 2019 and early 2023 eventually led to price increases, but only after a prolonged period of slow, steady gains.

Europe’s treasury playbook won’t be a carbon copy of Strategy

Even as traders focus on short-term price movements, a significant shift is happening with how companies manage their finances. This is particularly important for anyone optimistic about Bitcoin, as it relates to demand for the cryptocurrency. At a recent conference, leaders in Europe indicated that new Bitcoin treasury strategies being developed there will differ from the approach taken by Michael Saylor and companies in the US.

Thomas Vogel, a partner at the law firm Latham & Watkins with offices in Paris and Frankfurt, explained that issuing convertible bonds in the US has different rules and market conditions than doing so in Europe. He noted variations in how easily these bonds can be traded, the regulations involved, and how investors act. Alexandre Laizet, who heads Bitcoin strategy at Capital B in France, added that European companies are preferring to use existing European financial systems – like public listings in France and financial structures based in Luxembourg – instead of simply copying the US model of relying heavily on convertible bonds.

The difference in Bitcoin holdings is becoming clear. Companies like Germany’s Bitcoin Group SE (3,605 BTC) and Capital B (2,925 BTC, averaging $99,932 per BTC – currently down about 26%) have significant holdings, but are currently operating at a loss. Netherlands-based Treasury (1,111 BTC, averaging $111,857 – down around 34%) and Sweden’s H100 Group (1,051 BTC, averaging $114,615) also hold Bitcoin, but their amounts are small compared to Strategy. Strategy added nearly 14,000 BTC in a single week in early April, bringing its total to over 780,000 BTC, purchased for a total of $59 billion. Overall, the combined Bitcoin holdings of these European companies are a relatively small amount compared to Strategy’s massive stash.

Here’s what this means for the market: if the surge in demand we saw in 2024-25 was partly due to US companies buying bonds with money from investors, Europe won’t be able to make up for that loss quickly. Europe’s financial markets aren’t as deep, banks have stricter rules, and new regulations (MiCA 2) are still being developed – all of which will slow down similar bond-buying activity. Demand for European government bonds will increase, but it will happen at a slower pace and in a different way than we saw in the US during the last economic cycle.

Adam Back drags quantum back into the conversation

A surprising topic in this week’s market discussion is cryptography. At the Paris Blockchain Week, Adam Back, CEO of Blockstream and a pioneer in the field even before Bitcoin, suggested that Bitcoin users should start preparing for the potential of quantum computing. While he acknowledges the actual threat is still 20 to 40 years off, he believes proactive preparation is important.

Quantum computing isn’t fully developed yet – today’s systems are mostly prototypes, according to Back. However, he believes Bitcoin needs to get ready. His reasoning is simple: it’s best to develop optional upgrades that work with the current system – like new types of digital signatures – *before* quantum computers pose a real threat. Blockstream is already testing this approach with hash-based signatures on its Liquid Network.

A recent analysis suggests that when Bitcoin eventually upgrades to be quantum-resistant, it might reveal how much Bitcoin Satoshi Nakamoto – the creator of Bitcoin – actually owns, which is currently estimated to be between 500,000 and 1 million BTC. This is because anyone wanting to protect their Bitcoin from potential future attacks by quantum computers would need to transfer their coins to a new type of address. Coins that aren’t moved could likely be considered permanently lost.

I recently observed a significant debate erupt within the Bitcoin development community. It started on April 14th when Jameson Lopp and five colleagues released BIP-361, a proposal to essentially ‘freeze’ older Bitcoin – including the very first coins mined by Satoshi Nakamoto – to protect them from potential theft by future quantum computers. The reaction was swift and negative. One developer, Mark Erhardt, immediately called the proposal ‘authoritarian and confiscatory,’ and Phil Geiger from Metaplanet put it even more bluntly, arguing that it amounted to stealing from users to prevent potential theft. It was a pretty heated discussion, to say the least.

While the possibility of quantum computers breaking Bitcoin’s security isn’t expected to impact its price in 2026, the bigger concern isn’t if the threat will happen, but the time it takes to upgrade Bitcoin versus the speed of quantum computing advancements. Recent research from Google and Caltech suggests that breaking Bitcoin’s encryption might require significantly less computing power than previously thought. Although some believe developers could quickly address the issue if needed – pointing to rapid bug fixes in the past – relying on this depends on whether the often-disagreeing Bitcoin community can quickly reach a consensus under pressure.

What to watch from here

As of mid-April 2026, the situation with Bitcoin is cautiously optimistic. While the recent price increase is a good sign, it’s still too early to say if it will last. The price remains below its average, the total value held by investors is still decreasing, and demand for Bitcoin from US treasuries has dwindled to just one major buyer. In Europe, fewer people are investing than anticipated, and Bitcoin developers are struggling to agree on a long-term plan to update its security, including questions about which versions of Bitcoin will remain valid.

As a crypto investor, here’s what I’m really watching for to get more bullish. First, I need to see Bitcoin consistently stay above $78,000, and importantly, see the amount of new money flowing in consistently increase. That would be a clear sign people are actually buying again. Second, I’d love to see more companies, especially in Europe and Asia, start adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets – beyond just the few we’ve seen so far. That would broaden the institutional support. Finally, I’m keeping a close eye on plans to protect Bitcoin from future quantum computing threats. The work Blockstream is doing with hash-based signatures seems like the most realistic solution right now, as long as it doesn’t involve locking up old coins.

Until we see clear signs of recovery in at least one of those areas, the prediction of a rising market, as CryptoVizArt put it, isn’t a definite signal – stay cautious and keep a close watch.

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2026-04-16 23:21