Arthur Hayes Thinks Bitcoin’s $80K Drop Was Its “Rock Bottom” – Here’s Why

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Key points:

  • Arthur Hayes, the guy who used to run BitMEX, says Bitcoin’s $80,000 bottom was probably the worst it’ll get for now.

  • The US Federal Reserve might finally cut back on its “quantitative tightening” nonsense, which could send Bitcoin bulls galloping back into the market.

  • The whole “Fed rate cuts” drama remains as unpredictable as your favorite reality TV show.

According to Arthur Hayes, Bitcoin (BTC) should be able to stay above the $80,000 mark, especially with all the cozy liquidity changes happening in the US. 🍿

In his latest social media ramblings (he’s on X now, for some reason), the former BitMEX CEO predicted a comeback for Bitcoin. Why? Because the Federal Reserve is finally about to end its period of “quantitative tightening” (QT) – basically, they’re going to stop shrinking their balance sheet, meaning more money for Bitcoin and all those other wild risk assets. 🏦

Hayes on BTC price: “I think $80,000 holds”

Bitcoin’s price tumbled more than 35% from its peak, hitting a bottom around $80,500 last week. But according to Hayes, this is the worst of it. 😎

Why? Because the Federal Reserve is supposed to stop with its money-tightening policies next month. That means the big players can start playing with more cash, which might just be the rocket fuel crypto needs to get back in action. 🚀

“Minor improvements in $ liq,” he casually mentioned, like he was talking about the weather.

Hayes is confident that the Fed will finally stop making its balance sheet smaller this week, and, oh yeah, bank lending is also on the rise in November. For crypto, this means a rising tide of liquidity that could lift Bitcoin and altcoins out of the depths of despair. 🌊

“We chop below $90k, maybe one more stab down into low $80k’s, but I think $80k holds,” he added like some kind of crypto oracle. 🔮

Bitcoin Price Chart

The former BitMEX boss wasn’t shy about being bullish during Bitcoin’s decline. He even went on record saying that the world needs a little more quantitative easing (QE) to get the Bitcoin price to a better place. 🙏

And don’t forget, he also said that stocks need to “puke” in the same way crypto did before the big recovery can happen. 🥴

“We are playing for more money printing, and for that, we need AI tech stocks to crater,” he said, likely while sipping a fancy coffee. ☕

Arthur Hayes Image

From hawkish to dovish in an instant

The Fed’s financial policy changes have been all over the place, kind of like your grandma trying to figure out how to use her smartphone. 📱

In a world where macroeconomic data is as elusive as a unicorn, predicting an interest rate cut at the Fed’s December meeting has been like trying to guess what’s behind door number two. 🎰

The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool says there’s a 79% chance of a 0.25% rate cut, up from 42% just a week ago. So, there’s that. 📉

Fed Rate Cut Prediction

Economist Mohamed El-Erian weighed in on this rollercoaster ride of volatility, calling it “stunning.”

“This kind of wild volatility is the opposite of the ‘predictability and stability’ the Fed usually strives for,” he said, probably shaking his head at the chaos. 🤦‍♂️

And, just to add a bit of flavor, he went on to explain that this mess is the result of a government shutdown, a confused Federal Reserve, and a whole bunch of other factors that no one has the patience to explain right now. 🙃

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2025-11-24 18:41