Warsh’s Silent Storm: The Fed Meeting Everyone’s Whispering About

This philosophy may shape today’s meeting. Bank of America even suggests Warsh might refuse to submit his own projections to the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections. A bold move-like showing up to a potluck empty‑handed and declaring that everyone else’s cooking is terrible.

“If you’re not very good at something, you should do less of it,” Warsh once said. A refreshing honesty, though perhaps not the slogan one wants embroidered on the Fed’s throw pillows. He added that his own forecasts wouldn’t be perfect either, so why bother offering them up for public dissection.

The SEP’s famous “dot plot,” beloved by analysts and feared by anyone who dislikes polka‑dot metaphors, is expected to show rates holding steady through 2026, with gentle cuts drifting in like shy guests in 2027 and 2028. Policymakers may also nod gravely toward rising inflation risks, signaling they’re less willing to shrug off price shocks than in recent years.

Warsh’s first press conference, however, is where the real theater begins. Bank of America expects him to adopt a patient tone-perhaps the patience of a man waiting for geopolitical tensions, including those involving Iran, to stop knocking over his carefully arranged economic tea set. He will likely avoid hinting at imminent rate cuts, lest markets swoon prematurely.

Markets remain split on whether Warsh will ultimately prove more hawkish or dovish than Jerome Powell. This uncertainty, Bank of America warns, is the greatest risk of all-because nothing terrifies investors more than not knowing which animal metaphor to use.

A surprisingly hawkish Warsh could strengthen the dollar and squeeze stocks and bonds. But equally important is whether he uses this first meeting to begin reshaping the Fed’s communication style after years of unprecedented transparency-years in which the central bank spoke so often it risked becoming the world’s most expensive podcast.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin-down roughly 25% this year-continues its dramatic swoon, as if personally offended by Warsh’s arrival and the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict. Markets, like poets, can be sensitive creatures.

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