According to Cryptoquant CEO Ki Young Ju, periods where Bitcoin investors sell to take profits usually lead to about 18 months of lower returns. This suggests the current downturn in the market could last until the beginning of 2027.
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Key Takeaways:
- Cryptoquant CEO Ki Young Ju says bitcoin’s PnL typically falls for about 18 months after a profit-taking cascade.
- Bitcoin’s downtrend began in October 2025 and won’t reverse until unrealized profits rebuild, Ju argues.
- Cryptoquant’s Bull-Bear Cycle Indicator flipped bullish on May 12, muddying the bear call.
Still Some Time To Go Till The Bears Retreat
Bitcoin’s bear market may still have a year or more to run, according to Cryptoquant founder and chief executive Ki Young Ju, who spelled out the timeline in a post on X. “Once profit-taking cascades, Bitcoin investors’ PnL typically falls for about 18 months.” Ju wrote, using shorthand for aggregate investor profit and loss (PnL). “Since the trend turned in Oct 2025, the bear market could last until early 2027.”
His argument centers around how people are currently profiting from their investments. Essentially, many investors still have unrealized gains that they are gradually converting into cash, which typically puts downward pressure on the price until the selling slows down. He uses a combined index, based on several on-chain metrics like the MVRV ratio and net unrealized profit/loss, to track this trend. This index reached its highest point around mid-2025 and has been decreasing ever since.
The warning extends a position Ju has pressed for much of the past year, as he first declared bitcoin’s bull cycle over in 2025, citing a widening gap between the asset’s realized capitalization and its market capitalization.
Not Everyone, Including Cryptoquant’s Own Data, Agrees
The bleak timeline is far from settled even inside Ju’s own firm, as Cryptoquant’s Bull-Bear Cycle Indicator turned green on May 12 for the first time since March 2023, a signal that has historically coincided with the start of more constructive conditions.
Other analysts are more bullish still, with research firm K33 contending bitcoin’s roughly $60,000 February low already marked the maximum drawdown of this cycle (a decline of about 52% from the record $126,272 the asset printed on Oct. 6, 2025).
The recent market activity is unclear, creating uncertainty for traders. If one analyst is correct, we could see a period of slow progress before prices truly start to rise again. However, if positive indicators like increasing investment and a recovering market trend hold true, the worst might already be over.
Ultimately, Ju has identified a key signal for the market: if potential profits begin to increase while actual profits decline, it would likely indicate the start of a significant shift, as he predicts will happen after 18 months.
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2026-05-30 10:57