- BTC trading at $75,834, down 1.5% in the past hour, below 100 MA at $77,213
- 50 MA break and reversal on 1H: bull trap at $77,443 now liquidating long positions
- 1H liquidations: $209.41M long vs $3.54M short, 98.3% long liquidation dominance
- 24H liquidations: $431.57M long vs $53.83M short
- RSI at 24.67: deeply oversold on 1H; next support at $75,300, late April base
The recent small rise above $77,443, followed by this current drop, appears to have been a false signal for buyers. It lured people in when the price briefly went up, gave them time to invest, and then quickly reversed, causing those investors to sell their holdings as the price falls.
It’s likely, though not certain, that a breakout above the 50-day moving average (MA) triggered the recent wave of liquidations. While we can see many long positions being closed, we don’t know when those positions were originally opened. The price briefly rose above the 50 MA on the morning of May 22nd, but quickly fell back down with a significant price drop. After that, the price continued to fall, moving below both the 50 MA and 100 MA. The 200 MA, currently at $78,023, remains unbroken and is still trending downward.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 24.67, while its signal line is at 41.16, creating a significant 16.49-point difference. This is the strongest indication yet that the price has been falling rapidly. While the RSI being at 24.67 suggests the price is oversold and could briefly rebound, it doesn’t necessarily mean the downward trend is over.
What the Liquidation Data Confirms
Over the past hour, the market has experienced a significant wave of forced selling, primarily affecting those who bet on the price going up (long positions). This isn’t a balanced market reaction – nearly all the selling pressure comes from these leveraged positions being closed out as the price drops below key support levels. Specifically, $209.41 million in long positions were liquidated, compared to just $3.54 million in short positions.
According to data from Coinglass, long positions have been heavily liquidated, totaling $360.36 million compared to just $11.25 million in short liquidations. This means longs made up 97% of all liquidations. Over the past 24 hours, $431.57 million in long positions and $53.83 million in short positions were liquidated, showing a continuing trend where longs account for 88.9% of all liquidations.
The CMC20 index has fallen by 2.08% in the last 24 hours, currently at $152.55. Bitcoin has also decreased by 2.41% over the same period, indicating that this downturn isn’t limited to Bitcoin alone, but affects the broader market.
Where Price Sits and What Is Below It
The $75,300 price point is significant because Bitcoin began its recent price increase from that level in late April. Whether the price stays above $75,300 will indicate if the current drop is just a temporary dip before another rise, or the start of a larger downward trend. Currently, the price is about $534 above that key level. The 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages ($77,443, $77,213, and $78,023 respectively) are all falling and acting as resistance, meaning they are preventing the price from going higher, instead of supporting it.
If the price stays above $75,300 for a few hours and the RSI starts to rise above 30, it suggests we’ve found a bottom around the late April low. However, if the price falls below $75,300 and most liquidations still favor long positions, it means the price hasn’t bottomed out yet, and we can expect further declines.
As a researcher, I want to be clear that the information I present here is purely for educational purposes. It’s not financial advice, and shouldn’t be taken as a recommendation to invest in any particular cryptocurrency or strategy. I strongly encourage everyone to do their own thorough research and speak with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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2026-05-23 00:03