What to know:
- Tokenized U.S. Treasuries hit a record $15.35 billion in value locked, as traders weighed the higher chances of a Federal Reserve rate increase and sought yield outside spot crypto.
- Bitcoin is holding above $80,000 but faces difficulty breaking higher if inflation and real rates keep rising, with miner balance-sheet pressures potentially adding selling on rallies.
- Market volatility gauges signal short-term calm even as key macro and political events loom, including the U.S. PPI report, the Clarity Act vote and a Trump-Xi summit that could sway risk sentiment.
This is an excerpt from CoinDesk newsletter ‘Daybook.’ Sign up here, if you haven’t already.
Although Bitcoin is holding steady above $80,000, another part of the crypto market that’s affected by interest rates is growing rapidly and could draw investment away from other cryptocurrencies.
The amount of money invested in digital versions of U.S. Treasury bonds has reached $15.35 billion, surpassing a previous high of $15.10 billion from mid-April, according to data from rwa.xyz.
Investors are now anticipating that the Federal Reserve will likely raise interest rates, meaning borrowing money could become more expensive. This is a significant change from earlier this year, when most people expected rates to be lowered.
According to Polygon Ventures co-founder Iggy Ioppe, the recent crypto market downturn makes the June sell-off even harder to justify. He believes their earlier observation – that investors were holding safer assets like tokenized U.S. Treasury bills and BlackRock’s BUIDL instead of directly buying cryptocurrencies – will prove to be a smart move by the end of the week.
More money might flow into investments that earn returns through tokenized U.S. Treasury bonds if today’s report on producer prices shows that inflation is still a problem. Experts predict the report will show a 4.9% increase in prices compared to a year ago, up from 4.0% last month.
If upcoming economic data is high, it could lead the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, which would likely negatively affect investments considered risky. It’s unclear how Bitcoin will respond, though it remained relatively stable above $80,000 following the surprisingly high inflation report released on Tuesday.
Analysts at Marex acknowledged Bitcoin’s strength, but cautioned that rising inflation could make it hard for the price to continue increasing.
According to analysts at Marex, cryptocurrency might maintain its value, but it will likely have difficulty increasing significantly if real inflation continues to rise.
Miners, too, present a potential headwind.
When major mining companies report significant losses and start investing in AI, it often signals they’re trying to improve their financial situation. This could lead to them selling more of their holdings when prices go up. While this isn’t likely to cause a major price drop, it could limit how much prices can increase, especially with unpredictable economic conditions.
Smaller cryptocurrencies like ING, DOT, ATOM, and TRUMP saw gains of 5% or more, suggesting investors are moving money into these specific digital assets. Meanwhile, major coins like Ethereum, Solana, and XRP are experiencing fluctuating prices.
As a researcher tracking the crypto market, I’m currently observing relatively low volatility in both Bitcoin and Ether. This seems to be happening as we approach a few key events: the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI) report, the vote on the Clarity Act, and the upcoming meeting between President Trump and President Xi. It suggests the market is currently anticipating a period of stability before these events unfold.
Oil prices rebounded, with WTI crude futures climbing back over $100 a barrel, and copper prices surged to almost record levels. These increases suggest that inflation driven by rising commodity costs is likely to continue. Be prepared for potential price increases!
Today’s signal

Bitcoin’s recent price recovery seems to be pausing. It’s hit a resistance point around $82,300 – near its 200-day moving average and the top of an upward trend channel – suggesting a potential turning point.
As an analyst, I’m seeing a slowdown in progress right when things are becoming more uncertain. We’re facing increased worries about inflation and what the Federal Reserve will do next, and that’s putting a damper on any forward movement.
If Bitcoin doesn’t manage to rise above its 200-day average and falls below $75,000 – a price point many were watching in February and March – it could trigger a sell-off. This is especially likely if interest rates keep going up, making it harder for investors to take risks.
If the price clearly breaks above its 200-day average, it would likely signal the start of a new bull market, and could potentially lead to a price increase up to $92,000.
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2026-05-13 15:10