Bitcoin is currently staying above $78,000 despite increased market uncertainty caused by tensions between the US and Iran, which are making investors cautious worldwide. While the price appears stable, analyst Axel Adler’s recent research reveals a more complex situation beneath the surface, suggesting the market is more complicated than it seems.
As a researcher tracking Bitcoin, I’ve been looking at the network flow data, and it’s showing an unusual pattern. We’re seeing Bitcoin being deposited onto exchanges, but not the corresponding sales we’d typically expect. Over the last week, around 8,512 BTC have flowed *into* exchanges overall. This wasn’t a steady stream either; we saw two big surges on April 27th and April 30th. In fact, those two days alone accounted for roughly 16,800 BTC being added to exchange platforms in a very short period – a significant movement that definitely caught my attention.
Interestingly, the price didn’t fall when a large amount of new supply entered the market – it actually went up. This indicates that demand was strong enough to handle the increased selling, preventing an immediate price drop.
Since the beginning of May, trading activity has calmed down to a normal level. Bitcoin is currently held on exchanges, but significant selling hasn’t begun yet. According to Adler’s analysis, this situation represents a potential for future price movement – the key question is whether and when these held coins will be sold, and that will determine what happens with Bitcoin next.
The Supply Is Positioned. The Selling Has Not Started
A recent analysis of Bitcoin exchange reserves shows a slight increase. As of May 4th, total reserves across all platforms were 2,685,541 BTC, a rise of 5,773 BTC from the 2,679,768 recorded on April 28th. Reserves peaked at 2,686,791 BTC on April 30th before decreasing slightly in the days that followed.
The recent, slight decrease in reserves is a positive sign. When reserves fall while prices stay steady or increase, it indicates that the market is absorbing the current supply instead of letting it build up. How reserves change in the next few days will show whether this situation will continue to improve or potentially become problematic.
Adler describes the current situation as a build-up of ‘dry powder’ – meaning coins have been moved to exchanges by people preparing to sell. However, those potential sellers haven’t actually started selling yet. The coins are there, but there’s no immediate rush to sell – at least, not right now.
In my analysis, I’ve identified a very specific risk. Essentially, if the market stops taking in new money – if demand weakens at these prices while a large amount of supply still exists – that existing supply could quickly lead to a price drop. What worries me is that the current price doesn’t accurately reflect how little buffer there is between all the supply being held and actual selling. It feels like things could shift quickly.
Adler suggests a clear sign of a strong market: falling foreign exchange reserves combined with rising prices. This would show the market is growing naturally, not being propped up by artificial means. Until we see both of these things happening, significant investment opportunities will remain untapped.
Bitcoin Tests $79K As Price Compresses Between Key Moving Averages
Bitcoin is currently trading around $79,000, continuing to bounce back from a low point in February. However, the market isn’t showing a strong, definitive upward trend just yet. The price is showing signs of recovery, moving from a downward trend into a pattern of higher lows. It has also broken through a previous resistance level between $74,000 and $75,000, and is now testing whether that level will hold as support.
This price level is important because it coincides with the 50-day moving average and a previous period of stable trading. This makes it a crucial test for whether the current price increase will continue. While buyers have stepped in to prevent further declines, their buying hasn’t been particularly strong.
Bitcoin is nearing the $80,000–$82,000 price range, but it’s facing increasing resistance. The 200-day moving average is falling, adding to this resistance. Essentially, the price is squeezed between growing support below and weakening resistance above.
Trading volume doesn’t yet support the idea that prices are breaking out to the upside. The increase in price hasn’t been matched by a lot of buying, suggesting the recent gains are likely due to fewer people selling, rather than a surge in new demand.
If Bitcoin stays above $74,000, it suggests the price will likely keep going up. However, if it drops below that level, it could fall back down to between $65,000 and $67,000.
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2026-05-05 04:57