Fed Rates Hold for Third Straight Meeting as Crypto Watches Powell’s Final Conference

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Fed Rates Hold for Third Straight Meeting as Crypto Watches Powell’s Final Conference

On April 29th, the Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates steady, remaining between 3.50% and 3.75%. This was the third time in a row they’ve paused rate hikes. All eyes in the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency world were on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference at 2:30 PM, as it was his last public appearance in that role before his term ends on May 15th.

Summary

  • The hold was priced at 99 to 100% certainty by CME FedWatch before the meeting, making Powell’s language on inflation and the transition to incoming chair Kevin Warsh the only real market variable.
  • Bitcoin has fallen after 8 of the last 9 FOMC meetings, and entered April 29 trading near $77,000 after a 21% rally, a setup that historically produces post-meeting selling pressure.
  • No updated Summary of Economic Projections was released at this meeting, making Powell’s press conference tone the sole input for how markets price the path to any 2026 rate cuts.

On April 29th, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady, remaining between 3.50% and 3.75%. This marked the third time in a row they’ve held rates at this level, a move that was widely expected by financial markets. Since the meeting didn’t include updated economic forecasts, investors focused on comments from Fed Chair Powell regarding inflation, the situation in Iran, and the future direction of monetary policy under incoming chair Kevin Warsh.

Fed Rates Decision Was a Formality. Powell’s Words Were Not.

According to crypto.news, before the recent Federal Reserve meeting, experts expected a cautious approach from Jerome Powell. The expectation was that he would emphasize the need for more economic data before considering interest rate cuts, acknowledge rising inflation due to geopolitical issues and oil prices (particularly related to the conflict in Iran), and avoid committing to a specific timeline for cuts. While the Fed previously projected one small rate cut in 2026, opinions within the committee were divided, with some members not expecting any cuts at all, making future plans unclear. Yahoo Finance reported that inflation rose to 3.3% in March, largely due to a significant increase in gasoline prices linked to the Iran conflict. This put Powell in a difficult position, balancing rising prices against expectations in the market for lower rates. Bitcoin was trading near $77,000 heading into the meeting, having risen 21% from its April low. Analysts warned this strong performance resembled past situations before Fed meetings that led to sharp price drops.

Why Powell’s Tone Historically Matters More Than the Rate

The specific interest rate wasn’t the main focus; what mattered most was how Federal Reserve Chair Powell presented the information. As crypto.news reported, the Fed’s press conferences have consistently had a bigger impact on the market than the rate itself, because the rate is usually expected beforehand. The press conference is where surprises happen, and those surprises actually move prices. If Powell signaled a more aggressive stance on inflation or suggested interest rate cuts were less likely, it would likely reduce liquidity in the crypto market by making assets that don’t yield returns less attractive and boosting the dollar’s value. Conversely, if he acknowledged falling inflation and hinted at potential rate cuts, it could encourage investment in riskier assets like crypto. Analysts were particularly focused on how Powell described the situation in Iran – whether he saw it as a long-term issue affecting supply or a temporary disruption. This assessment would likely determine if the Fed would stick to its earlier projection of a single rate cut in March when they meet again in June.

What the Warsh Transition Adds to This Meeting

As a researcher following the Federal Reserve, I noted that April 29th marked Jerome Powell’s final FOMC press conference. It was a significant day because Kevin Warsh, his successor, received Senate Banking Committee approval that same morning – Senator Tillis had lifted a previous hold on his nomination just the week before. I’ve been tracking Warsh’s views, and he believes Bitcoin can act as a hedge against mistakes made by central banks. This suggests that any market impact from his leadership at the Fed will likely unfold over several months, rather than the typical 48-hour reaction we see after each FOMC meeting. Powell left Warsh with a few key challenges: interest rates unchanged for three meetings, inflation still above the target level, and a substantial $6.7 trillion balance sheet – a balance sheet Warsh has stated he intends to shrink.

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2026-04-29 19:42