For the curious reader, Bitcoin (BTC) has, like a restless cat, risen more than 10% over the last month, all while dancing in the shadows of volatility.
Yesterday it startled everyone by leaping past $79,000, only to settle into the familiar embrace of $78,258 at the time of writing-a modest 2.54% ascent for the day.
Yet, like a good play, the plot thickens as three subtle cues begin to bleed warnings into the script.
3 Reasons Bitcoin’s 10% Monthly Surge Could Be Running Into a Wall
Julio Moreno, a lover of perpetual futures and a man who once accidentally tripped over his own spreadsheet, told reporters that the rise is largely a mirage built on those futures. He noted that the steady hand of spot demand is retreating, albeit more quietly than a footstep in a snowless attic.
Moreno compared the scene with January, when BTC had flirted with $98,000 before politely pulling away.
“There are risks of a correction if traders start taking profits while spot demand continues to contract,” Moreno said-an observation reminiscent of a potter warning about a glaze that might crack.
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Glassnode, ever the detective, revealed that the 24‑hour simple moving average of Short‑Term Holder Realized Profit has climbed to $4.4 million per hour. That comparable to the three‑times‑larger fraction of the $1.5 million threshold that has marked each yearly summit to date.
“In the absence of a meaningful demand catalyst capable of absorbing this wave of profit realization and sustaining momentum above the Short‑Term Holder Cost Basis, a pullback from current levels would be entirely consistent with the pattern this report has outlined. The signals, taken together, point toward caution rather than conviction at this juncture,” the report noted.
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With the continuation of this rebound, now underway for several weeks, Bitcoin has just reclaimed the cost basis of the on‑chain traders cohort, located around ~$74,300.
-💡This cohort includes all BTC held for between 1 month and 3 months, a short enough period to classify…
– Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) April 22, 2026
And finally, Glassnode declared that BTC pushed past the True Market Mean at $78,100-a milestone as cyclical as a well‑tuned violin, though the next target sits at $80,500, the Short‑Term Holder Cost Basis.
Those who gathered between $60,000 and $70,000 are now inching towards profit. Glassnode suggests that this cohort has a strong incentive to saunter out. A rebound to $80,000 would tip more than 54% of fresh buyers back into profit, like a sudden rain after a dry spell.
“This dynamic raises the probability of a local top formation in the near term, warranting caution despite the constructive breakout above the True Market Mean,” Glassnode added.
Thus, the warning signals stack like dominoes. Whether fresh demand can absorb the distribution pressure will determine if the rebound extends or reverses-a question as deliciously perplexing as a soup left untouched on a hot stove.
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2026-04-23 16:41