What to know:
- Bitcoin’s climb toward the mid-$70,000s is being powered by steady institutional and macro-driven ETF inflows rather than a surge in retail speculation.
- As prices near about $76,800, on-chain data show a sharp increase in exchange deposits from larger holders, suggesting many are selling at or near their breakeven levels.
- This creates a late-cycle “handoff” in which long-term holders distribute coins into ETF demand, leaving bitcoin able to spike on inflows but vulnerable to a pullback toward the low-$70,000s if selling pressure overwhelms new buyers.
As a crypto investor, I’m watching Bitcoin’s push towards $75,000, and it seems we’re hitting a bit of a roadblock. There’s a lot of Bitcoin being sold at this price point, creating a supply wall, even though big institutions are still consistently buying. It’s a classic supply and demand situation right now.
Bitcoin’s recent price increase is mainly due to overall market trends, not a sudden wave of new investors. Demand for U.S.-listed bitcoin ETFs has remained strong throughout the month, with one day seeing roughly $240 million in new investments following increased tensions in the Middle East, according to Enflux.
The purchase boosted Bitcoin’s price from about $71,000 to the mid-$70,000s, despite concerns in traditional markets about increasing oil prices and changing expectations for interest rates. According to Enflux, this suggests investors are choosing to put their money into Bitcoin rather than simply following short-term trends.
But as bitcoin pushes higher, the character of the market is starting to change.
Recent on-chain data indicates that more sellers are entering the market as the price nears a crucial level for short-term holders – around $76,800. This price represents the average purchase price for traders who bought during the last price dip, according to CryptoQuant. Historically, this level has often acted as a price ceiling, as investors who previously experienced losses use price increases to sell their holdings and break even.
The price of the asset briefly reached nearly $61,000 in January before falling back down to around $60,000, a pattern that happened before.
Bitcoin deposits to exchanges suddenly increased to around 11,000 BTC per hour – the highest level seen since late December – as the price of Bitcoin hovered around $75,000 to $76,000.
Recently, the average amount of Bitcoin deposited in one transaction increased to 2.25 BTC – the highest it’s been since the middle of 2024. This indicates that people with significant Bitcoin holdings are behind the current activity. Large transfers now make up over 40% of all incoming Bitcoin, a jump from less than 10% just days ago, and historically this pattern has often led to increased selling.
That sets up a two-sided market.
Demand for ETFs remains strong, supported by positive economic trends. However, some major investors are taking the opportunity to sell holdings as prices rise, increasing the available supply and potentially creating a ceiling around a key price point.
Instead of a stalemate, we’re seeing a transfer of ownership. Long-term cryptocurrency holders seem to be selling their coins directly to buyers through ETFs. The inflows CryptoQuant and Enflux are tracking actually represent the same transactions, just observed in different data sources.
If this transfer of ownership is successful depends on whether the new owners hold on for longer than those leaving. This is a common trend towards the end of a cycle, and it usually ends with one of two outcomes.
The crypto market can rise rapidly with new investment, but it has trouble holding onto those gains when sellers start appearing. To break and stay above $75,000, demand needs to overcome increasing selling pressure. If it doesn’t, the market could fall back down to around $70,000, which is where the recent price increase began, according to CryptoQuant.
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2026-04-16 10:12