Betting Bonanza: $1 Trillion, Robinhood & Coinbase to the Rescue!

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Markets

What to know:

  • Bernstein has taken a calculated bet: prediction‑market volumes will gallop up to roughly $1 trillion by 2030, a staggering leap from the current $51 billion in 2025.
  • While sports are the star of the show today, the future’s destined for crypto and macro contracts, with a thundering trickle of institutional hedgers moseying in.
  • Revenues look poised to outstrip $10 billion by 2030, with Robinhood and Coinbase whispering sweet nothings into the ears of the masses.

Bernstein, ever the dapper financial curiosity, forecasts a market roaring to a neat $1 trillion by 2030, morphing from a niche pastime into a sprawling tapestry of sports, crypto, politics, and the economy.

After last year’s $51 billion flare, the numbers are sprinting toward $240 billion by 2026, hinting at an astonishing 80 % compound annual growth all the way to the decade’s end. Polymarket and Kalshi, the two modern-day outlaws of the field, have already raked in a combined $60 billion YTD in 2026.

“With regulatory clarity at the federal level clearing the way and the jolly good blockchain tokenisation making global liquidity a breeze,” wrote the sagacious analysts led by Gautam Chhugani, “the market is stretching like a well‑fed dachshund at big‑footed parties.”

This market, once a cramped corner of crypto and academia, has fluffed its wings into a global trading segment that’s simply exploding – especially when the 2024 U.S. election brought a rush of net‑fire.

Platforms have broadened horizons beyond politics, delving into sports, crypto, and macro events, with easier regulatory footing and a buttery‑smooth user experience propelling it toward the heart of mainstream trading.

Regulatory clarity expands the playground beyond state‑by‑state games while blockchain’s porous infrastructure lets liquidity flow worldwide, spawn new event contracts in a jiffy, and attract institutional beasts.

Sports currently command a hefty 62 % of volumes, thanks to lower take rates compared to traditional sportsbooks. But the analysts wistfully forecast that share to wane to a modest 31 % by 2030, as crypto‑linked contests and economic events win hearts alike.

$10.8 billion in revenue

Bernstein’s crystal ball predicts industry revenues rising from a modest $400 million in 2025 to a glittering $2.5 billion in 2026, and eventually eyeing a cool $10.8 billion by 2030 at the current take‑rate rates. Even with fee compression tightening up, the profit pool remains a glossy, multi‑billion‑dollar jackpot.

Distribution has turned into a security blanket, with Robinhood (HOOD) and Coinbase (COIN) taking centre stage, riding their combined userbases into the front lines.

Robinhood already churns out a $350 million annualized revenue run rate from prediction markets while flirting with owning its own exchange infrastructure, and Coinbase made a splash via Kalshi, granting nationwide access to over 1,000 contracts.

Both platforms have received a spattering of “overperform” praise.

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2026-04-15 16:06