Bitcoin Bottom? More Like Bitcoin Bummer, Says This Guy

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Oh, Bitcoin, you fickle beast. One minute you’re touching $73,000 like it’s a hot pretzel at a street fair, and the next, we’re all like, “Wait, is this rally just a ceasefire in the war against our bank accounts?” Spoiler alert: Benjamin Cowen, the crypto Nostradamus who called the top six months ago, says we’re still in the “grind losses like coffee beans” phase. Sorry, folks, no bottom in sight-unless you count the bottom of our depleted crypto wallets.

According to Cowen, founder of Into The Cryptoverse (which sounds like a theme park for blockchain enthusiasts), the data is about as supportive of a bottom as a lawn chair after a 300-pound guy sits on it. And guess what? The 4-year cycle is pointing to October. So, pack your pumpkin spice lattes and brace for impact.

Three On-Chain Signals That Are Basically Crypto Tea Leaves

Cowen’s not here for your feelings or macro headlines. He’s all about the on-chain conditions-three of them, to be exact. Think of them as the Three Wise Men of Bitcoin, except instead of gold, frankincense, and myrrh, they bring bad news.

First, the supply in profit/loss indicator hasn’t crossed. Cowen’s like, “All prior lows happen after the cross, not before.” Translation: We’re still waiting for the crypto equivalent of a green light.

“And we haven’t seen that cross yet.” – Cowen, probably while sipping a ‘Crypto Tears’ latte.

Second, the MVRV Z-score hasn’t gone below zero. Every bear market bottom has demanded this reset, and Bitcoin’s like, “Nah, I’m good.”

Third, Bitcoin hasn’t traded below both its realized price ($54,000) and its balance price ($39,000). Historically, every cycle bottom has involved Bitcoin hitting both levels. So, unless Bitcoin suddenly develops a taste for humility, we’re not there yet.

The Bear Market Resistance Band: Not a New Boy Band

Cowen’s identified $78,000 to $79,000 as the bear market resistance band-basically, the crypto version of the velvet rope at an exclusive club. Until Bitcoin closes above that level, we’re all still standing outside in the cold, wondering if we’re dressed appropriately.

And those tactical rallies? Totally normal in a bear market. It’s like when your ex texts you “hey” at 2 a.m.-it doesn’t mean they’re coming back; they’re just bored.

October: The Month of Crypto Spooks

Cowen’s betting on October as the most likely bottom. Why? Because the 4-year cycle is as predictable as a reality TV show breakup. His base case is October to October, putting the low in Q4 2026. Yes, you read that right. 2026. Go ahead, mark your calendars with a sad face emoji.

He’s giving it a 75% chance that the bottom is still ahead. So, if you’re feeling optimistic, there’s a 25% chance you’re just delusional.

“I would say there’s like a 75% chance that the Bitcoin bottom is still in the future,” he said, probably while adjusting his tin foil hat. “Maybe a 25% chance that it’s already in.”

His price target for a full reset? Around $39,000-the balance price. That’s roughly a 70% decline from the $126,000 peak. So, if you’re feeling like you’ve lost a lot, just remember: it could be worse. You could be holding a Beanie Baby collection.

What Would Change Cowen’s Mind? A Miracle.

Cowen’s not a permanent Debbie Downer. He admits there’s a 25% chance the low is already in. He’d revise his view if Bitcoin hasn’t made a new low by October. So, basically, he’s data-dependent, not emotionally attached. Unlike the rest of us, who are emotionally attached to our dwindling crypto portfolios.

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2026-04-11 12:07